AGP Executive Report

Belarus–Azerbaijan Trade: Belarus and Azerbaijan kept industrial cooperation in focus as Azerbaijan’s Deputy PM Samir Sharifov said bilateral trade rose 11% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026 to $158m, with the Azerbaijan Trade House in Minsk helping exports. Bilateral Deals in Minsk: Oman’s business push produced seven MoUs at the Oman–Belarus Business Forum, covering food security, AI prototypes for water/agriculture/soil, knowledge transfer, smart city solutions and GIS. Industrial Cooperation: Belarus Prime Minister Alexander Turchin told the Azerbaijani delegation that new industrial projects are a “strategic growth point,” pointing to joint manufacturing in machine-building and utility equipment, and the creation of joint ventures. Regional Business Context: Belarusian officials also met Turkish business circles at the Council of the Republic, with trade and economic cooperation highlighted as a priority. Energy Shock (Regional): Separate reporting notes fuel supply shortages and purchase caps spreading in Russia’s Moscow region, underscoring how regional energy disruptions can spill into business conditions.

Agri-business Showcase: Belarus’ biggest agricultural expo, Belagro 2026, opened in Minsk as part of the Belarusian Agroindustrial Week, running until June 6 with 570 companies from 12 countries and 42,600 sq m of displays, including new agri-machinery, greenhouse tech and food processing innovations. Diplomacy & Trade Links: Oman is taking part in Belagro 2026 and using the visit to push food-security and investment cooperation with Belarus, including talks on baby food supply and milk drying. Industrial Cooperation: Belarus and Oman also discussed expanding private-sector industrial partnerships in Minsk, focusing on vehicle manufacturing/assembly and road construction machinery, with both sides looking for new investment deals. Regional Business Contacts: Azerbaijan’s deputy PM visited Minsk’s “Pershy” trade center and the Azerbaijan Trade House to highlight Belarusian local products and expand business ties. Foreign Policy Meets Markets: Belarus’ foreign minister met North Korea’s economic counterpart to speed up preparations for the next joint trade and economic commission meeting, with emphasis on agriculture, food security and healthcare. EAEU Politics: Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan said an EU-vs-EAEU referendum is “meaningless” without an official EU application, while Belarus and other EAEU members have urged Yerevan to hold such a vote.

Belarus–Oman Business Push: Belarus’ foreign minister met Oman’s agriculture chief during the Omani delegation’s Belagro-2026 visit, with both sides stressing baby food, milk drying, and wider regional market access for Belarusian products. Agro-Industry Showcase in Minsk: Belarusian Agro Industrial Week kicked off in Minsk with Belagro-2026 and related fairs (Belfarm, Belproduct, ProdMash, Food Industry), positioning the country’s farm and processing tech for foreign partners. Banking for SMEs: A Belarusian trade-and-finance roundtable in Armenia highlighted Belgazprombank’s role in trade finance and support for small and medium-sized businesses. Currency & Wages: The EDB said real wages in Belarus keep rising despite early-year slowdown, supporting consumer demand. EAEU Politics Spillover: Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan said an EU-vs-EAEU referendum is “illogical” without an official EU application, while Russia and EAEU leaders continue urging a vote—keeping regional trade and sanctions risk in focus for Belarus-linked supply chains. Energy Risk Mood: Oil jumped on renewed Hormuz blockade concerns tied to Iran, a reminder that global energy prices can quickly feed into Belarus’ costs and inflation. Tech & Integration Calendar: Chinese VP Han Zheng is set to attend the St. Petersburg forum and visit Belarus, signaling continued interest in regional economic cooperation. Belarus–Azerbaijan Contacts: An Azerbaijani delegation visited Minsk for economic commission talks and laid flowers at Victory Square, underscoring ongoing state-to-state trade engagement.

Belarus–North Korea Ties: Lukashenko praised Kim Jong Un as a “smart cookie” and said Primorsky Krai could become a trade conduit between Belarus and the DPRK, as a North Korean delegation visited Minsk for food security and health cooperation. Belarus Rail & Travel: Belarusian Railways extended advance ticket sales for regional business-class trains from 20 to 45 days to improve service and planning. Oman Looks to Belarus for Food Tech: An Omani delegation toured Slutsk Cheese Factory and Bellakt ahead of Belagro 2026, focusing on dairy production, quality systems, and possible partnerships. VTB Youth Banking: VTB plans an online bank for children and teens aged 6–14, with phone transfers, QR payments, mobile payments, and a finance chatbot launching in fall. AI Governance in the EAEU: EAEU leaders adopted a joint statement on responsible AI development, framing AI as a catalyst for integration while stressing fair, inclusive outcomes. Armenia Pressure Spillover: Belarus warned Armenia to avoid a “Ukraine scenario” amid EAEU/EU referendum pressure, while Pashinyan rejected an immediate vote as premature. Fuel Supply Talks: Russia is discussing higher gasoline deliveries from Belarus to meet domestic demand, including possible changes to import duty and damping payments. Court Case: A Belarusian university dean and an entrepreneur were sentenced over a scheme to profit from foreign student enrolment, with prison terms and bans from managerial roles.

EAEU AI Push: Leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union signed a joint statement on the responsible development of artificial intelligence in Astana, framing AI as a driver for faster integration across industry, logistics and agriculture. Belarus-Oman Trade & Food Security: An Omani delegation visited Belarus ahead of BELAGRO 2026, touring Slutsk Cheese Factory and Bellakt to review dairy and baby-food production tech and food-safety systems. Armenia-EAEU Pressure: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan urged Armenia to hold a nationwide referendum on EU vs EAEU membership, with Armenia’s PM calling the vote “unreasonable” until EU candidacy is concrete. Belarus Trade Strain: Belarus’ foreign trade in goods ran at a loss in April, with a negative balance rising by $517.7m, according to Belstat data cited by Belsat. Ukraine Energy Strikes Spill Over: Ukraine reported drone strikes on Russian energy facilities including the Saratov oil refinery and a Kirov-region pumping station, underscoring how regional energy supply chains remain a business-critical risk. Diplomatic Consultations: Belarus and Slovakia held political consultations in Minsk, agreeing on steps to deepen cooperation in political, trade, economic and humanitarian areas. Sanctions Watch: Ukraine synchronized new sanctions with the EU’s 20th package, listing Belarusian oil and military-equipment producers among targeted entities.

Belarus Crypto Banking: Belarus is moving from “experimental” crypto services toward regulated “cryptobanks,” with plans for crypto loans, deposits and payments under National Bank rules, while compliance checks use blockchain analytics to flag high-risk sources. EAEU Politics: At the EAEU summit in Astana, Lukashenko warned Armenia not to “repeat the Ukrainian scenario” and urged caution over any EU pivot; he also questioned claims about future gas transit and payments. Belarus-Ukraine Security Talk: Lukashenko dismissed Ukraine’s “500 targets” claims as “empty talk,” saying Belarus has its own precise targets and that Kyiv’s military doesn’t want a wider front. Oman–Belarus Trade: Oman will take part in Belagro 2026 in Minsk with agriculture, fisheries and water sustainability projects, plus an Omani-Belarusian business forum to push investment links. Ukraine Energy Strikes: Ukraine denied claims about hitting Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear plant while reporting drone strikes on Russian oil and fuel infrastructure, including a Saratov refinery and a Kirov pumping station supplying oil to Belarus. NATO Drone Drills Near Belarus: The U.S. and UK ran Project Flytrap 5.0 in Lithuania to expand allied anti-drone tactics, testing sensors and interceptors close to the Belarus border.

Belarus-Armenia/EAEU Tensions: After the EAEU summit in Astana, Alexander Lukashenko urged Armenians to move cautiously and avoid “repeating the Ukrainian scenario,” saying election-linked rhetoric about leaving the bloc is “empty talk,” while also questioning Pashinyan’s claims about future gas transit and payments. EAEU Politics: Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations, warning that EU rapprochement could undermine EAEU cooperation; EAEU leaders backed a referendum in Armenia, with an assessment of consequences due by December 2026. Belarus Security Talk: Lukashenko responded to Ukraine’s claims of “500 targets” in Belarus, saying Ukraine should expect “500 targets” back and stressing the border’s sensitivity. Oman-Belarus Trade: Oman will participate in Belagro 2026 in Minsk with public and private delegations focused on agriculture, fisheries, water sustainability and food security, including a business forum on the sidelines. Energy/Logistics War Spillover: Ukrainian drones hit Russian oil infrastructure, including a key pumping hub tied to routes supplying Belarus, underscoring how regional fuel logistics remain a business risk.

EAEU Politics: Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko says EAEU members “don’t want Armenia to leave” but will respect Yerevan’s choice, as Russia recalls its ambassador to Armenia and the bloc pushes for a nationwide referendum on EU vs EAEU membership. Sanctions & Trade: Ukraine signed decrees aligning sanctions with the EU’s 20th package, extending restrictions to people and companies tied to Russia, including Belarus-linked entities. EAEU Integration: EAEU leaders in Astana backed new trade initiatives, including free-trade talks with Tunisia and updates to Serbia rules, while also endorsing responsible AI development. Belarus Finance: VTB adjusted short-term ruble deposit rates, with the bank citing higher profitability and continued growth in deposits. Belarus Economy Signals: A Reuters fact-check round also circulated claims about U.S. “manipulating statistics” to block China—an item that Belarus state media had amplified. Belarus in Sports Spotlight: Aryna Sabalenka set up a French Open clash with Naomi Osaka, keeping Belarus tennis in the headlines.

EAEU Integration Push: Leaders in Astana used the Eurasian Economic Union summit to double down on digital trade and AI, with talks on a unified digital space, e-commerce, transport/logistics connectivity, and financial cooperation, while Kazakhstan’s Tokayev said EAEU mutual trade could top $100bn in 2026 and the bloc’s combined GDP hit $3.02tn in 2025. Armenia Pressure Point: The same summit turned into a political-economic showdown: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan backed a “referendum as soon as possible” in Armenia on EU membership vs staying in the EAEU, warning EU preparations create “significant risks” to EAEU economic security and that officials will report in December 2026 on possible suspension consequences. Belarus–Cuba Ties: On the sidelines, Belarus’ Lukashenko met Cuba’s vice president, discussing AI cooperation plus medicine/pharma and trade expansion, and signing a 2026-2030 cooperation roadmap through the EAEU framework. Belarus Diplomacy: Belarus’ deputy foreign minister Shestakov visited Venezuela for consultations on political cooperation and trade/economic and industrial projects, agreeing dates for the next joint commission meeting. Regional Security Spillover: A Russian drone strike hit a Romanian apartment building near the Ukrainian border, injuring civilians and prompting NATO and Romanian officials to warn of escalation and strengthen defenses.

EAEU Summit in Astana: Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko joined Vladimir Putin and other EAEU leaders for a Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting where Armenia’s EU ambitions dominated the agenda, with leaders backing a nationwide Armenian referendum on EU membership vs staying in the EAEU and warning of “significant risks” to EAEU economic security, plus a December 2026 report on consequences if the EAEU Treaty is suspended for Armenia. EAEU Trade Outlook: Kazakhstan’s Tokayev said intra-EAEU trade is set to top $100B in 2026, after exceeding $95B in 2025, as the bloc pushes deeper partnerships and trade liberalisation talks—especially with India. AI as an Integration Theme: The Eurasian Economic Forum in Astana put AI and digital regulation front and center, with leaders and officials discussing responsible AI use and practical applications in customs, logistics, industry and quality control. Belarus Housing Pressure: Belarusian National Bank changes to June loan/deposit risk values are unlikely to move rates much, but experts point to stronger demand from Russian buyers as a key driver pushing Minsk housing prices up by over 20%. Regional Business Context: Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (including the Volgograd refinery and Yaroslavl-3 pumping station) underline how energy supply and logistics remain a major risk factor for regional trade and costs.

EAEU Integration in Astana: Putin will spend his third day in Kazakhstan on Eurasian integration, joining a Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting focused on the bloc’s plans through 2029, with Lukashenko and Kyrgyz President Japarov attending while Armenia’s Pashinyan again skips EAEU events. Belarus-AI on the Eurasian stage: Lukashenko is set to brief EAEU leaders on Belarus’s AI experience and push for responsible AI development in the real economy. Ukraine war supply-chain pressure: Ukraine says foreign-made components were found in Russian missiles and drones used in the May 24 attack, and that separate Oreshnik boards include Belarusian components made in 2004-2014—raising renewed scrutiny of Belarus-linked electronics flows. Belarus domestic food push: Belarus plans year-round tomato supply by 2027-2028, expanding greenhouse capacity and adding supplementary lighting. Belarus FX update: On May 28, the dollar and euro fell on the Belarusian currency market while the ruble and yuan strengthened. Car dealers’ 2025 snapshot: The Belarusian Automobile Association reports 27 dealers generated nearly 4.86bn rubles revenue in 2025, with 3.72bn rubles in loans and 4,367 employees. Trade deal timing: The EAEU-Mongolia interim trade agreement is set to start July 22, cutting or zeroing duties on 367 commodity subheadings.

Belarus–Cuba Diplomacy & Trade: Deputy FM Evgeny Shestakov visited Havana, meeting Cuban counterparts on political cooperation and trade/economic ties, with plans for events marking 35 years of diplomatic relations. EAEU Integration Watch: Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan said Yerevan is not preparing to leave the EAEU, arguing the bloc can be used to protect economic interests and diversify routes (including Kars–Akhalkalaki railway). Eurasian Trade Deal: The EAEU–Mongolia interim trade agreement will start July 22, cutting or zeroing customs duties on 367 commodity lines for three years (with possible renewal). Belarusian Economy & Finance: Belarusian car dealers’ 2025 results were summarized by the Automobile Association (BAA): 27 dealers generated ~4.86bn rubles revenue; wages totaled 161.8m rubles; loans reached 3.72bn rubles. Currency Moves: On May 28, the dollar and euro fell on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange; the ruble and yuan edged up. Sanctions & Tech Supply Chains: Ukraine showed European ambassadors missile/drone parts, saying some “Oreshnik” circuit boards include Belarusian components (2004–2014), while officials urged tighter controls on foreign electronics reaching Russia. Defense Industry Automation: Belarus’ Radar Design Bureau is rolling out AI for electronic warfare control, aimed at detecting drones, forecasting routes, and selecting countermeasures. EAEU Leadership in Kazakhstan: Lukashenka flew to Kazakhstan for EAEU events, including an AI-focused forum and the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting.

Belarus–Turkmenistan Business Ties: A Belarusian business and academic delegation wrapped up a 22–26 May visit to Ashgabat with B2B meetings aimed at boosting exports and industrial cooperation, including firms in microelectronics (Integral, Tsvetotron) and pulp/woodworking (Svetlogorsk Pulp and Board Mill, Ivatsevichidrev). Banking Performance: Rosselkhoznadzor’s IFRS net profit fell 42% y/y to RUB 11.5bn in Q1 2026, while net interest income rose 30.7% to RUB 40.6bn and the agribusiness loan portfolio grew 1.4% to RUB 2.757tn. EAEU Tech Agenda: Lukashenka is set to attend the Eurasian Economic Forum in Astana (28–29 May), focusing on AI in the real sector and EAEU technological cooperation, with leaders also set to discuss trade and customs issues. Cyber & Fraud Risk: Lithuania says “hostile states” orchestrated a theft of 600,000+ records from its national property registry, while separate reporting highlights cross-border phone-scam arrests involving a Belarusian suspect linked to SIM-box infrastructure.

Belarus Exports & Trade: Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn says Belarusian goods exports are keeping up “positive trends” from Q1, with the goods trade deficit narrowing in Jan–Mar; Belstat is set to publish preliminary Jan–Apr figures soon. Rail & Telecom Updates: Belarusian Railway will adjust schedules on the Minsk–Orsha line for repairs (June 1–4 and June 8–11), while Beltelecom opened three new BeltelecomShop outlets in Gomel region. Energy Market Link: Belarusian gasoline sales on the St. Petersburg exchange jumped sharply in May, with volumes far higher than last year as buyers seek supply amid Russian refinery disruptions. Finance & Regulation: Belarus’ National Bank bought about $0.5bn in foreign currency in April, and it also plans tighter June risk settings for loans and deposits; separately, the National Bank and Rosfinmonitoring will cooperate on anti–money laundering. Crypto Policy: Belarus added cryptocurrencies to the list of approved underlying assets for certain non-deliverable OTC financial instruments. Geopolitics With Business Impact: Reports say Russia is pressuring Belarus to deepen involvement in the Ukraine war, while Europe worries about escalation risks tied to Belarus-based infrastructure—an uncertainty that can spill into regional trade and investment.

Belarus-Ukraine Security Pressure: Belarus says it has logged 116 Ukrainian drone attempts to cross into Belarus over the past week, framing some as deliberate strikes on border infrastructure—an escalation that comes as Ukraine warns Russia is pressuring Minsk to act against Ukraine or even NATO targets. EU Fertilizer Relief: The EU approved a one-year suspension of customs duties on nitrogen-based fertilizer imports to cut costs for farmers and reduce reliance on Russian and Belarusian supply. Belarus Finance & Crypto: Belarus expanded the list of approved underlying assets for non-deliverable OTC deals to include cryptocurrencies, signaling deeper integration of digital assets into the financial system. Local Business Risk: Belarus’ data protection watchdog says Dodo Pizza customers’ personal data was unlawfully leaked, triggering an unscheduled inspection. Regional Watch: Putin is set to visit Kazakhstan for an EAEU summit where Armenia’s EU ambitions are expected to be a key topic.

Geopolitics, Belarus-Ukraine risk: Belarus is again in the spotlight as Russia escalates pressure around Kyiv and warns foreigners to leave, while opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya visits Kyiv amid fears Minsk could deepen support for Moscow. Diplomacy, Europe: France’s Macron reportedly called Lukashenko to urge him to stay out of the Ukraine war and improve ties with Europe—an unusual tone that signals growing Western alarm. Security, CSTO drills: Russia says the CSTO will run four command-and-staff and rescue drills in 2027 across Russia and Belarus. Finance, crypto: Belarus approved cryptocurrencies (including Bitcoin) as underlying assets for non-deliverable OTC instruments, pushing further integration into its financial system. Trade, economy: Belarus’s employment fell in April, and the goods-and-services trade deficit shrank about threefold in Q1. Fertiliser, sanctions pressure: The EU suspended nitrogen fertiliser tariffs for a year, while the US is pressing Lithuania/Poland/Ukraine to allow Belarusian potash transit—yet Lithuania says potash sanctions stay in force until Feb 2027. Regional cooperation: Uzbekistan and Belarus discussed expanding cooperation, and Minsk hosted Azerbaijan’s Independence Day event.