AGP Executive Report

Belarus-Russia Nuclear Drills: Belarus has started joint nuclear exercises with Russia, testing delivery and “unplanned” deployment readiness—prompting Ukraine to call it an unprecedented threat and a violation of the nuclear order. Ukraine Frontline Pressure: In northern Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops say Russian drone dominance is nearly cutting off positions and making rotations and resupply “almost” impossible. Black Sea Strike Risk: Ukraine reports Russian drones hitting civilian vessels approaching Odesa, including a Chinese-owned ship, while Kyiv also warns of attempts to exploit occupied Crimea’s grain exports. Diplomacy Signals: Angela Merkel says the EU is not using its diplomatic leverage enough and rejects the idea of mediators without real political power—while Russia says it expects “serious” outcomes from Putin’s China trip. Cyber & Security: Poland warns of a breach at water treatment plants that could have tampered with drinking water quality, with reports pointing to Russian/Belarus-linked activity. Belarus-Asia Ties: Sri Lanka and Belarus signed air services plus education and healthcare MoUs, adding to Minsk’s broader push for new partnerships.

Belarus–China Pivot: Lukashenka signed a directive to deepen Minsk’s ties with Beijing, mixing economic cooperation with political and humanitarian elements, as Minsk tries to reduce the risk of a Russian takeover. Nuclear Posture: Russia and Belarus staged nuclear drills, with Belarus saying the exercise focused on delivery of nuclear munitions and preparation for use—while Zelensky claims Russia wants to pull Belarus deeper into the war. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukraine says it hit Moscow-region targets over the weekend, including the Angstrom/Elma microelectronics area and fuel infrastructure, as Russia continues to frame strikes as “drone debris.” Diplomacy Watch: Belarus is pushing a BRICS agenda toward fuller membership, while Moscow signals “serious expectations” from Putin’s China visit. Business & Tech: Konami is ending eFootball service in Russia and Belarus from June 15, 2026, adding to the broader squeeze on digital services since 2022.

Ukraine–Russia Escalation: Ukraine says it struck Moscow-region defense and fuel infrastructure overnight, including the Angstrem microelectronics plant in Zelenograd and a key ring oil pipeline pumping station, as Russia continues to claim hits from “drone debris.” Belarus–War Spillover: Zelensky warns Russia is trying to pull Belarus deeper into the fighting, with plans for new operations from Belarus toward the Chernihiv–Kyiv axis, prompting Ukraine to prepare a response plan. Sanctions & Media: Lukashenko met US evangelist Franklin Graham and praised Washington for providing two-thirds of Belarus’s humanitarian aid, while the broader thaw with the US remains in the background. Digital Economy: Konami confirmed it will end eFootball service in Russia and Belarus on June 15, and Belarus’s antimonopoly regulator signed a deal with major online platforms to boost domestic goods and curb “extremist” listings. Business Links: Indonesia and Belarus agreed a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap and Rp7 trillion in MoUs ahead of Lukashenko’s planned July visit. Energy/Industry Context: Reports also flag rising pressure on fertilizer supply chains and costs across Europe, a theme that keeps feeding regional trade and policy moves.

Belarus-Indonesia Push: Indonesia and Belarus used Minsk talks to lock in a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap and set up direct-flight and visa-alignment plans ahead of Lukashenko’s July visit, with industrial deals also in focus (electric vehicles, semiconductors, and potassium fertilizers). Bilateral Deal Flow: The same commission meeting produced five MoUs worth Rp7 trillion, spanning fertilizer, dairy, machinery/inputs, logistics, and broader trade and investment cooperation. Price-Rule Overhaul: Belarus updated the makeup of its state price regulation commission, shifting to a structure where members serve by position, with the first deputy prime minister leading. E-commerce Governance: Belarus’ antimonopoly regulator signed a unified agreement with seven online platforms to boost transparency, expand pickup/courier coverage in remote areas, and curb listings tied to “extremism” materials—while Wildberries was not a signatory. Tech Access Tightening: Konami confirmed it will end eFootball service in Russia and Belarus on June 15, 2026, adding to the wider post-2022 digital pullback trend.

Digital Sanctions Tighten: Konami confirmed it will shut down eFootball in Russia and Belarus on June 15, 2026—another blow after years of tightening game-service restrictions in the region. War Signals and Risk: Ukraine says Russia is trying to pull Belarus deeper into the war, with plans for strikes from Belarus toward the Kyiv–Chernihiv direction, prompting Kyiv to prepare a response plan. Diplomacy Through Culture: Eurovision’s director says there are no plans for Russia to return to the contest, while “theoretically” a return could happen only if broadcasters meet Eurovision rules. Belarus–US Thaw in Focus: Lukashenko welcomed U.S. evangelist Franklin Graham and praised U.S. humanitarian help, saying Washington provides two-thirds of Belarus’s aid—amid broader prisoner-deal related warming. Trade and Industry: Indonesia and Belarus signed a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap and MoUs worth Rp7 trillion in Minsk, targeting agriculture, machinery, and industrial projects. Online Governance: Belarus’s antimonopoly regulator signed an agreement with seven platforms to boost transparency and push domestic goods, while excluding Wildberries for now.

Counter-Drone Push: In Lithuania near the Belarus border, the U.S. Army’s Project Flytrap 5.0 is being tested in live drills to make counter-drone systems deadlier and faster at squadron level, with U.S.-UK forces integrating dozens of industry techs against low-cost drones. Belarus–Indonesia Deal Flow: Minsk is also moving on the business track: Indonesia and Belarus signed a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap and MoUs worth Rp7 trillion, spanning agriculture, machinery assembly, dairy, dolomite, and trade connectivity, with a business forum planned around a Belarus presidential visit. Humanitarian + Politics: Lukashenko told U.S. evangelist Franklin Graham that Washington supplies about two-thirds of Belarus’s humanitarian aid, signaling a continuing thaw with the U.S. Security Warning: Ukraine says Russia is trying to pull Belarus deeper into the war and is preparing a response plan to strengthen the Kyiv–Chernihiv direction. Markets Watch: On the Belarusian currency market, the dollar and euro both fell on Friday, while the ruble was slightly weaker.

Belarus–US Thaw, With Strings: Lukashenko praised the US as the biggest humanitarian donor, saying Washington provides “two-thirds” of Belarus aid, while also welcoming US evangelist Franklin Graham for a major Minsk gathering—another sign of warming ties despite sanctions. War Risk From Belarus Territory: Zelensky says Russia is pushing to involve Belarus more deeply in the war, with plans for strikes from Belarus toward the Kyiv–Chernihiv direction and even NATO-adjacent areas, prompting Ukraine to ready a response plan. Justice Push: Ukraine and European partners moved forward on a Nuremberg-style tribunal for the crime of aggression, with Belarus’ leadership named as potentially in scope. Economy Under Pressure: Intelligence reporting claims Belarus’s economy shrank in Q1 alongside Russia, raising stagflation fears as borrowing costs bite. Cyber Spotlight: ESET flags renewed FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter attacks on Ukrainian government targets, linked to Belarus-aligned activity. Tech/Business Notes: Konami ends eFootball 26 online service in Russia and Belarus from June 15.

Belarus–Ukraine Legal Fallout: The EU moved to sanction people and groups tied to Russia’s deportation and forced indoctrination of Ukrainian children, with Brussels saying nearly 20,500 children have been transferred since the invasion—while Ukraine’s foreign minister calls the new “Nuremberg-style” tribunal a point of no return, and says Minsk’s leadership has effectively received “tickets to The Hague.” Belarus Security & Cyber: ESET reports the Belarus-linked Ghostwriter/FrostyNeighbor group is back, using spear-phishing PDFs that impersonate Ukrtelecom and then tailor the next step by where victims connect from. Economy Pressure: Belarus is feeling Russia’s slowdown—Ukraine’s intelligence service says Minsk’s Q1 economy shrank 0.4% and warns stagflation risk as Russian rate hikes raise borrowing costs. Diplomacy & Trade: Indonesia’s economy minister visited Belarusian heavy-industry plants (MTZ, MAZ, BelAZ) to explore tractor and equipment cooperation for food security. Social & Politics: A Protestant prayer event in Minsk featuring Franklin Graham is drawing attention as a possible “spiritual thaw,” with authorities reportedly granting permission after initial skepticism.

Cybersecurity & Crime-Fighting: Belarus-linked Ghostwriter/FrostyNeighbor keeps evolving its phishing playbooks against Ukrainian government and military targets, using PDF lures and delivery chains that end in Cobalt Strike. Regional Security Diplomacy: Kazakhstan is pushing an SCO-style platform to speed up cross-border data sharing on internet fraud and other digital crimes, while prosecutors’ offices discuss asset recovery and operational cooperation. Fertilizer Shock: Fertilizer prices jumped again as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supplies, with the World Bank flagging a likely 2026 rise driven by higher input costs. Belarus–Sri Lanka Trade Push: Minsk and Colombo signed air-services and MoUs on education and healthcare, aiming for direct flights and more student and tourism flows. Belarus Crypto Policy: Belarusian “cryptobanks” can process 26 preapproved cryptocurrencies, including major coins and stablecoins. Ukraine War Spillover: Russia’s latest drone-and-missile barrage hit Kyiv hard, with reports of heavy civilian impact.

Belarus–Sri Lanka Jumpstart: Belarus and Sri Lanka signed an air services pact plus MoUs on higher education and healthcare during Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath’s visit, with plans for direct flights by year-end to boost tourism and student mobility. Crypto Banking Rules: Belarusian “cryptobanks” can now process 26 preapproved cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, major stablecoins (USDT/USDC) and select meme coins—another step in turning the Hi-Tech Park into a regulated digital finance hub. Cyber Pressure on Ukraine: ESET reports Belarus-aligned FrostyNeighbor spear-phishing Ukraine since March, using Ukrtelecom-themed lures and evolving malware delivery chains. Trade & Local Deals: A Belarusian consul in Vietnam’s Can Tho pushed for an MoU and even direct flights, while an Indonesian delegation is set to meet Belarusian industry ahead of the next joint commission. Ukraine War Spillover: Russia’s drone and missile strikes continue to hit Kyiv and other regions, with reports of casualties and infrastructure damage.

Ukraine War Escalation: Kyiv says it’s facing a massive early-morning strike from Russian drones and missiles, with debris hitting buildings across districts and follow-on attacks reported in Kharkiv, Sumy and Poltava. Negotiations Sticking Point: The Kremlin is again demanding Ukraine withdraw from all Russian-claimed Donbas areas before talks can restart. Energy Under Fire: Russia hit Naftogaz facilities in Kharkiv and Zhytomyr, damaging gas infrastructure and sparking fires. Regional Security Deals: Ukraine and Lithuania signed a “Drone Deal” defense cooperation pact, while Lithuania’s support is framed as reciprocity. EU Diplomacy Options: The EU is reportedly considering Angela Merkel as a mediator for Ukraine-Russia talks. Belarus Diplomacy & People-to-People: Belarus FM Maxim Ryzhenkov met Sri Lanka’s Vijitha Herath, with plans to expand fertiliser, machinery supplies and worker training; Belarus also hosted a Benue youth entrepreneurship programme. BRICS Focus: India hosts BRICS foreign ministers as Iran-UAE tensions complicate a shared stance, with Strait of Hormuz disruptions expected on the agenda.

Freedom of Expression Crackdown: The US has been added to a global watchlist for jailing writers, joining China, Iran and Russia after Trump’s threats to journalists. Belarus Legal Pressure: Armenia’s prosecutor’s office has formally requested the extradition of Nver Tsarukyan from Belarus, keeping Minsk in the spotlight amid ongoing prisoner-and-sanctions diplomacy. Finance Watch: VTB says Russia’s savings market grew by 1 trillion rubles in April, with deposits and savings accounts rising and average retail checks climbing. IP & Trade Links: A Eurasian patent roadshow in China (EAPO in Moscow) pushed companies to file early for unified Eurasian protection—explicitly naming Belarus as part of the system. Public Health Disruption: A cruise ship in Bordeaux reports 1,700+ people confined after suspected gastrointestinal illness; testing is underway and disembarkation depends on clearance. EU Food Costs Plan: A leaked EU draft says carbon-tax revenues could be recycled into farm subsidies to cushion fertiliser shocks. Belarus Diplomacy: Belarus hosted inter-ministerial political consultations with Laos in Minsk, with more visits and agreements expected.

Global Risk Repricing: Investors are rapidly reshuffling exposure after the US–Israel-Iran shock, with a new Henley & Partners–AlphaGeo index showing a major jump in how quickly countries’ risk rankings are being recalibrated. EU Sanctions Push: The EU has launched its 20th sanctions round on Russia, expanding the “shadow fleet” crackdown and adding shipping and financial targets. Belarus Diplomacy: Minsk hosted Belarus–Laos inter-ministerial consultations on political, trade/economic, and humanitarian cooperation, with further high-level visits discussed. Belarus in the Wider Region: Sri Lanka’s foreign minister is set to visit Belarus May 12–15, with talks and sector MoUs expected. Belarus–Security Angle: Ukrainian intelligence says it identified 52 firms tied to Russia’s Pantsir-S1 production chain, including some not yet sanctioned. Sports & Politics: Belarusian athletes in modern pentathlon are cleared to compete under updated international rules, while tennis and Eurovision coverage keeps mixing sport, money, and boycotts.

Belarus-EU misinformation: Belarusian TV is again caught distorting EU messaging, with a fresh fact-check saying claims that Christine Lagarde warned about “food ration cards” are false—she was discussing risks around scarce industrial inputs tied to energy and fertilizer, not rationing. Ukraine-Russia pressure on sanctions: The US keeps tightening the screws on Iran-linked supply chains, while a reported US push for a temporary Ukraine ceasefire would trade relief for Moscow—raising the stakes for Belarus-linked logistics. Belarus in the spotlight abroad: Sri Lanka’s foreign minister Vijitha Herath is set to visit Minsk (May 12–15) for talks with Lukashenko, ministries, and a business/tourism roundtable. Defense and sanctions ripple effects: Ukraine says 52 firms are involved in Russia’s Pantsir-S1 production chain, including some not currently sanctioned—an issue that matters for Belarus trade and procurement. Sports access: Belarus athletes in modern pentathlon can compete under their national flag after UIPM lifted restrictions. Food security risk: UN warnings highlight how fertilizer disruptions—especially via the Hormuz route—could trigger major food shortages, with Latvia urged to reroute transit away from Russian ports.

US Sanctions Pressure on Iran Supply Chains: Washington hit 10 individuals and firms tied to Iran’s drone and missile procurement networks, naming operators across China, Hong Kong, Dubai—and Belarus—under the “Economic Fury” push. Belarus-Poland Diplomacy: Minsk’s foreign minister says all Polish “conditions” are now settled and the ball is on Warsaw, with talks expected at deputy-minister level and a focus on transport, logistics, and border bottlenecks. Prisoner-Release Deal Politics: Trump publicly thanked Lukashenko for “cooperation and friendship” after the US helped secure releases of three Poles and two Moldovans, including journalist Andrzej Poczobut. Ukraine Frontline Reality Check: Despite a May 9–11 ceasefire, both sides traded accusations and kept up limited strikes, with hostilities easing but not stopping. Belarus Soft Power Abroad: Sweden is hosting an international youth forum on gender equality and democracy in Belarus, backing young activists—especially women—in exile and at home. Media/Info War: Belarusian TV was flagged for re-airing old political material as “new,” and fact-checkers called the claims mostly false.

US–Belarus Prisoner Deal: Trump says the US helped free three Polish nationals and two Moldovan citizens from detention in Belarus and Russia, thanking Lukashenko for “cooperation and friendship” and crediting envoy John Coale—highlighting how diplomacy is still being traded for access. Belarus–Egypt Trade Push: Egypt’s investment minister visited Minsk and signed/advanced protocols to deepen Belarus–Egypt cooperation via commodity exchanges and joint industrial projects, including tractor and heavy equipment localization with an export hub angle for the Middle East and Africa. Iran Pressure, Belarus in the Crosshairs: The US Treasury under “Economic Fury” sanctioned firms and people tied to Iran’s Shahed drone and missile supply chains, including a Belarus-based company, while Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire response as “totally unacceptable.” Fertilizer Shock for Farms: Middle East conflict-driven fertilizer and fuel volatility is squeezing farm costs and returns, with potassium supply exposure including Russia and Belarus. Belarus Elections Tech Scrutiny: Coordination Council elections start May 11; organizers say extra checks are underway after concerns raised about Sumsub’s voter verification provider.