AGP Executive Report

Belarus Reserves Watch: Belarusian international reserves fell by $609m in September, with the National Bank pointing to shifts in gold and foreign-currency holdings. Minsk Transport Build-Out: Minsk plans new overpasses and road upgrades, including an overpass from Kolesnikova to Timiryazeva, a Serova–Shpilevskogo link to connect Oktyabrsky and Leninsky districts, and a new road to ease pressure on Partizanski Avenue. Tech for Industry: MTS Cloud launched cloud GPUs for Belarusian businesses, offering on-demand high-performance computing powered by Nvidia H100 accelerators. Housing Pressure: A Minsk residential project (“Smart” on Prylutskaya) faces fresh delays and quality complaints from co-investors, while another area (“Paŭnočny” panel townhouses near Dauginaŭski Trakt) shows how new housing is expanding on the capital’s outskirts. Customs & Cash Controls: An Israeli citizen faces up to five years after trying to bring in undeclared cash equivalent to $33,000. Citizenship Risk Abroad: Belarusian state media renewed warnings that political emigrants could lose citizenship under 2023 legal changes. Business-Adjacent Security: The Minsk Regional Court began a trial involving serious charges against three Belarusians, including a former military academy lieutenant colonel.

Reserves Watch: Belarus’s gold and foreign exchange reserves fell by $609m in September to $14.63bn, mainly due to a drop in the international gold price, while FX assets rose. Sanctions & Trade: Belarusian potash is set to reach the US—30,000 tonnes loaded at Bronka—with unloading scheduled for Oct 14 in New Orleans after US sanctions easing. Currency & Energy: The Belarusian ruble is holding steady overall, but near-term moves depend on central bank policy, global energy prices, and demand for major currencies. US-Belarus Talks: Belarus says prisoner releases were a “minimal cost” tied to progress on “serious economic issues” with the US, as negotiations continue. Domestic Economy & Work: Home-based work remains small but growing—about 1.4% of employed people—mostly women, with remote and platform work also tracked by Belstat. Infrastructure: Construction has started on a new Minsk residential complex at Planernaya Gora, beginning with a multi-story parking garage and commercial facilities. Regional Context: Latvia’s election delivered a strong win for PM Andris Kulbergs’ pro-Ukraine United List, shaping the Baltic security and sanctions debate that Belarus businesses feel through trade and policy spillovers.

Belarus-Iran Banking Links: Belarus and Iran agreed to set up regular meetings between central and commercial banks to remove obstacles in currency and banking operations, aiming to support trade and investment. Sanctions & Crypto Controls: Japan added Russian crypto exchange Garantex to a new asset-freeze list, tightening payment and capital transaction rules for 33 entities and nine individuals, plus service/financing limits for 35 “shadow fleet” vessels. Latvia Election With Security Stakes: Latvia’s pro-Ukraine United List of PM Andris Kulbergs led the parliamentary vote (about 35.3–35.6%), setting up coalition talks as voters focus on defense and living costs. Belarus Crime Crackdown: A criminal case was opened in Baranavichy over unauthorized access to a Telegram account after a phishing-style contest link led to money requests. Local Business Corruption Case: Belarusian investigators uncovered a bribery scheme tied to agricultural machinery repair contracts in Minsk, Brest and Hrodna regions. Trade/Finance Deal Abroad: Belarus’s Development Bank will finance Sudan projects worth over $100m for grain storage and Belarusian tractor assembly.

Belarus crackdown on crypto-linked scams: Belarusian Interior Ministry and Investigative Committee units detained 19 people in the Minsk region over a phone-fraud scheme where couriers collected cash from victims, converted it into cryptocurrency, and transferred funds to organizers’ wallets; seven suspects were remanded in custody while investigators work out the damage and number of victims. Trade and border enforcement: Vitsyebsk customs seized an IVECO truck carrying over 10,700 units of nicotine-containing products worth more than BYN 180,000, citing invalid shipping documents and launching administrative proceedings. EAEU business diplomacy: Iran’s first vice president said Tehran is ready to deepen economic cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union, calling Minsk a key platform for regional trade and investment. Regional context for Belarus firms: Latvia’s parliamentary election is dominated by security and the cost of living, with pro-Ukraine PM Andris Kulbergs’ United List leading in exit polls—an environment that can affect Baltic logistics and cross-border demand for Belarus-linked trade. Everyday costs in Minsk: A calculation by Belarus media broke down the price of a cappuccino in a Minsk coffee shop, highlighting labor and rent as major cost drivers.

Latvia Election Watch: Latvia’s ruling United List (PM Andris Kulbergs) was projected to win 35.6% in Saturday’s parliamentary vote, with security and the cost of living dominating the campaign amid fears of Russian pressure. Belarus Crypto Crackdown: Belarusian authorities say they detained 19 people in Minsk region over a scheme moving scam proceeds via couriers who converted cash into cryptocurrency and transferred it to organizers’ wallets. Belarus Trade & Border: Vitsyebsk customs stopped a truck carrying over BYN 180,000 of nicotine products, citing invalid shipping documents. Minsk Mobility: Minsktrans explained delays on bus and trolley routes, including how the “ЗТ” (transport delay) label appears when traffic disrupts estimated arrival times. Belarus Economy Snapshot: Priorbank approved dividend payments totaling BYN 360.56 million (BYN 2.93 per ordinary share), with payouts due by Nov 30, 2026. EAEU Diplomacy: Iran’s first vice president said Tehran is ready to deepen economic cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union during an intergovernmental council meeting in Minsk. Everyday Costs: Belarusian media broke down what drives the price of a Minsk cappuccino, highlighting labor and rent as major components.

EAEU in Minsk: Prime ministers of EAEU states met in Belarus to push trade, customs, transport corridors and common energy market plans, including updates to priority rail projects like the Nevel–Dno–Luga–Gatchina corridor. Belarus cashless shift: Belarus saw 20.8m active bank cards in H1 2026, while ATMs and info kiosks kept shrinking and retail payment terminals edged down—another sign of continued move toward mobile and internet banking. Public transport headaches in Minsk: Minsktrans said delays on key bus and trolleybus routes are tied to peak-hour traffic and line disruptions; the “ЗТ” tag on stop displays signals transport delay, though the system can’t predict jam duration. Belpochta digital payments: The postal operator launched “Balance” to let cash-on-delivery senders receive money to a personal account and then transfer to cards or pay via QR self-service. Minsk redevelopment: Demolition started in the Haya and Arlouskaya streets area for a new residential complex, with some owners relocating for compensation or apartments while others dispute proposed terms. Cross-border human angle: 41 Ukrainians returned from Russian-occupied areas via a route that includes Belarus, highlighting how the region’s checkpoints shape access to freedom.

Minsk Real Estate & Housing: Demolition has started in the Haya–Arlouskaya area for a new residential complex, with some owners relocating for compensation or new apartments while others resist proposed terms. Cashless Payments: Belarus is seeing rapid growth in bank cards (over 20.8m active in H1 2026) while ATMs and info kiosks keep shrinking, and Belpochta is rolling out a “Balance” service for faster, safer cash-on-delivery payouts. Transport & Retail Tech: Belarusian Railway is introducing KROK QR payments for station services via Belarusbank and a banking processing partner. Trade & Currency Pressure: “Far Arc” trade is widening Belarus’s deficit—Jan–Aug sales to distant markets were $8.8bn versus imports near $15bn, costing over $6bn. EAEU Integration: EAEU heads of government met in Minsk, focusing on trade, customs, transport corridors, industrial cooperation, and agriculture forecasts for 2026–2027. Foreign Business Links: Belarus is expanding ties with Nicaragua (investment/trade talks during INNOPROM) and discussing agriculture and mechanisation cooperation with Uganda. Sanctions & Risk: Japan added new sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” while a separate report links a suspected GRU-linked Russian biker to a failed sabotage attempt at Leipzig-Halle airport.

EAEU Integration & Politics: Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is in Minsk for the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, while Lukashenka again signals loyalty to Russia and frames the economy as the top priority. Bilateral Trade: Kazakhstan and Belarus signed agreements worth over $100m, including industrial cooperation and Hyundai Trans Auto deliveries of commercial vehicles to Belarus. Infrastructure & Connectivity: Belarus and Russia signed a memorandum on designing and building a high-speed Moscow–Minsk railway, with industrial cooperation and staff training planned. Business & Finance: A1 Belarus is folding its A1 Banking mobile banking functions into the My A1 customer app from Nov 3. Industrial Support: Gomel’s OAO 8 Marta received 900,000 BYN from an innovation fund for equipment upgrades, with revenue growth targets. Mobility in Minsk: Minsktrans says public transport delays are mainly due to traffic and operational issues, pointing residents to real-time display tools. Consumer Market: Belarus car sales fell 5% in September after a record August, while EV sales dropped 13% as duty-free quotas ran out. Crime & Fraud: A Gomel man accused of running scam schemes affecting 1,000+ people is set to stand trial, with alleged phishing and fake listings used to steal funds. International Security Spillover: Putin warned that a direct attack on Russia or Kaliningrad could trigger use of all weapons, as NATO and EU governments respond with further military support.

Baltic Trade Pressure: Estonia has banned the transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through its territory, saying it won’t help Russia sustain its war economy as Baltic ports coordinate with Latvia and Lithuania. Sanctions & Security Spillover: Romania launched searches tied to an alleged sanctions-evasion attempt to send dual-use industrial machinery (a VL40 vertical lathe) to Belarus via intermediaries. Belarus Business & Finance: Turkcell will inject USD 7m into its Belarus unit BeST in two installments, while Minsktrans says it catches about 5–6k fare evaders monthly in a city moving ~1.2m passengers daily. Banking & Markets: Belarusian banks increased lending to businesses to 20bn roubles in August, and individuals borrowed 2bn roubles. Crypto Regulation: Belarus approved its first crypto banks under new rules. Trade Diplomacy: Cambodia and Belarus reviewed plans to expand cooperation across industry, agri-food, pharma, finance, tech, and business exchanges. Regional Watch: Lithuania is moving to restrict Russian and Belarusian property purchases near strategic sites, with possible effects from Jan 1, 2027.

Belarus Banking & Credit: Belarusian banks boosted lending to businesses to 20.3 bln roubles in August and expanded loans to individuals to 2.0 bln roubles, with overdue debt rising but still relatively contained. Economic Planning: Lukashenka signed decrees setting 2027 socio-economic targets, including 1.9% GDP growth, 3% real income growth, exports up 2.9%, and inflation capped at 6%, alongside reserve and banking-quality goals. Exports Push: The Economy Ministry says export growth will be driven by “far arc” markets, with logistics support and existing exporter decrees backing the plan. Property & Security Curbs in the Region: Lithuania approved a draft law restricting Russian and Belarusian citizens from buying real estate near strategically important sites, with rules potentially starting Jan 1, 2027. Cross-border Cash Controls: Russia tightened cash ruble export limits to 1 mln rubles for travel to EAEU and nearby countries, affecting Belarus-bound travelers. Trade/Logistics Watch: Belarus customs stopped attempts to smuggle 40 tonnes of pears to Russia hidden behind declared carrots. Business Diplomacy: Uzbekistan and Belarus signed 15 agreements to expand interregional cooperation, focusing on regional development and support for entrepreneurship. Industry & Investment: Azerbaijan companies are showcasing products at INNOPROM.Belarus in Minsk through Oct 2, aiming at export deals and partner meetings.

Belarus 2027 Economic Blueprint: Lukashenka approved 2027 socio-economic plans: GDP growth of 1.9%, real incomes up 3%, inflation capped at 6%, fixed-capital investment +3.1%, and exports of goods and services +2.9%, with a monetary-policy target of at least $12.8bn in international reserves and a cap on problem bank assets at 10%. Finance Watch: VTB Group reported IFRS net profit of 49.2bn rubles in August and 314.8bn rubles for the first eight months of 2026, with return on equity at 20.2% (August). Banking & Digital Assets: Belarus is moving ahead with new crypto-banking rules, including the registration/approval of crypto banks to operate in the country. Trade & Industry Diplomacy: Kyrgyzstan’s cabinet chair Adylbek Kasymaliev will visit Minsk on Oct 1–2 to attend Eurasian Intergovernmental Council meetings and Innoprom. Belarus 2026, focused on industrial and technological cooperation. Sanctions-Linked Deal Talk: US envoy John Coale is pushing a prisoner-for-sanctions-relief model, with Belarus previously used as a test case tied to potash and sanctions easing. Local Business Moves: Belarusian retailer “Dabranom” is launching a new pet-supplies chain under the Teo&Leo brand. Market Signals: Belarusian currency and stock exchange rates moved on Sept 29, with the dollar and yuan rising.

Retail Shake-up: Belarus’ last VDOM store in Minsk (“Spektr”) shut on Sept 28, ending a chain that once had up to 35 outlets and even an online shop. Social Services Policy: New rules let private social boarding houses take part in state procurement for residential care, with tariff caps, possible rent relief, and preferential municipal property purchase rights. Belarus–Cambodia Diplomacy: Belarus’ foreign ministry first deputy Sergey Lukashevich met Cambodia’s Nitor Ty, agreeing on a schedule of upcoming cooperation across political, trade, and economic areas. Banking for E-commerce: Belarusbank launched “For Everything” loans to pay on Wildberries, offering 200–50,000 rubles for up to five years at ~17–18% interest. Currency Controls Spillover: Russia tightened cash ruble export limits to EAEU states and others, capping individuals at 1 million rubles and restricting business cash outflows—relevant for Belarus-linked cross-border flows. Geopolitics & Trade Leverage: Reports say the US is considering sanctions relief for Russia in exchange for political prisoner releases, with Belarus cited as a tested model tied to potash talks. Food Supply Watch: Latvia saw a sharp rise in grain transit from Russia and Belarus through its territory in September, amid EU rules on origin.

Crypto Banking Rollout: Belarus has registered its first crypto banks under the Hi-Tech Park framework, following a presidential decree on “cryptobanks” and digital tokens, with banks to be regulated by the Hi-Tech Park and the National Bank. Defence Industry Export Push: Belarus’ military industrial committee will take part in Azerbaijan’s ADEX-2026 with a national pavilion and about 150 items, including weapons and dual-use equipment. EU Sanctions Watch (Potash): RFE/RL’s Wider Europe briefing says Brussels is weighing what comes next after removing Russian oligarchs from sanctions, with attention now turning to whether Belarus-related restrictions could be adjusted, including potash-linked issues. Regional Property Curbs: Lithuania is moving to restrict Russian and Belarusian buyers of property near military and other security sites, citing intelligence and security risks. Public Transport Friction: In Minsk, a trolleybus route change is causing passengers to pay twice when traveling through “Kakhouskaya,” as the stop is treated as the end of one direction and the start of the return. Tourism Capacity Expansion: Belarus plans to increase sanatorium room stock by about 30%, including potential Russian investment in new resort projects.

Crypto Banking Breakthrough: Belarus has registered its first crypto banks under the new Decree No. 19 framework, with two entities approved as High-Tech Park residents and set to start after National Bank accreditation—aimed at linking token activity with traditional banking and attracting foreign investment. Currency Watch: The Belarusian ruble closed September on a “rollercoaster,” with near-term moves seen as moderate versus the USD and weaker versus the euro, driven by Russian ruble and oil-market dynamics. Tourism & Hospitality Expansion: Belarus plans to boost sanatorium room capacity by about 30%, with potential Russian participation via full resort projects and new sites in Mogilev and Vitebsk regions. Local Business & Consumer Life: Minsktrans bans adult bicycle carriage on public transport (children’s bikes allowed), while a new “Tochka Geely” car center is set to open in Minsk, expanding the dealer network. Regulation & Enforcement: Mobile operator A1 was fined 109.7m rubles for shifting customers from cheaper legacy tariffs to a pricier plan, after an antimonopoly ruling. Tech & Industry: Belarus and Russia unveiled a prototype 130-nanometer lithography machine, signaling deeper cooperation in microelectronics. Culture Policy: Minsk approved an updated charter for the Belarusian Television and Radio Company, reshaping its media mandate and priorities.

Belarus Telecom Retail Expansion: Beltelecom is opening a new BeltelecomShop in Molodechno (Minsk region), using a “shop + service” format to sell equipment and connect customers to digital services. Trade & Regulation Appointments: Belarus has named a new Minister of Antimonopoly Regulation and Trade (Alexander Yakouchyts) and also made broader personnel changes across the security and standards system, signaling a fresh push on market oversight. Anti-Gambling Advertising Push: Belarus is preparing tighter rules on casino and gambling advertising after Lukashenka’s criticism; taxi fleets are already being urged to remove gambling ads from vehicles and interiors. Local Utilities Disruption: After a short power outage in Minsk district, residents in Baraulyany reported cloudy “tea with sand” tap water; Minsk District Vodokanal says flushing is underway and drinking water is being delivered. Fraud Case in Minsk: Police say a 23-year-old was tricked into withdrawing and handing over cash, including taking a loan under her name; family losses were about 20,000 rubles. Eurasian Charter Drafting: Belarus and Russia are advancing work on an “Eurasian Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity,” with an expert group and a first in-person round planned in Minsk by end-2026.

Gambling Crackdown in Minsk: After President Lukashenka’s outburst over casino and bookmaker ads, Belarus is moving toward tighter rules. Taxi operators are being urged to quickly remove gambling ads from car sides and to stop placing such ads inside vehicles, even though the new law is still being prepared. Minsk Water Disruption: A pipeline rupture near Zhukouskaha Street triggered a major water release and left homes on three Minsk streets without hot water during repairs; Minsk Heat Networks says the leak was contained and hot-water limits are temporary. Agro Theft Case: A Vitsyebsk region farm technician faces up to 10 years for stealing spare parts meant for company vehicles and using them to service his own car. Labor Migration Deal: Belarus and Nepal agreed to set up a mechanism for organized recruitment of Nepalese workers for jobs in Belarus, with foreign ministries coordinating and visa waivers for diplomatic/official/service passport holders. Belarus–Thailand Travel Push: ONYX Hospitality Group says it is expanding focus on Russia and CIS demand, adding Minsk to its sales mission as Belavia prepares new Minsk–Bangkok and Minsk–Phuket routes. Border Tech Scrutiny: An Israeli IT specialist says he was detained at the Belarus–Lithuania border for phone subscriptions flagged as “extremist,” then fined and had devices confiscated.