AGP Executive Report

Belarus Economy & Finance: Belarus received $2.3bn in personal transfers, overtaking FDI as a key foreign-currency source, highlighting how households are effectively funding part of the external balance. Income Outlook: The government draft forecast expects real income growth to slow to about 3% in 2027, signaling a more cautious macro path ahead. Currency & Payments: The Belarusian ruble weakened against all major currencies on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, while reports also flagged a bank card service disruption in the country. Energy & Trade Links: Russia’s fuel crunch is spilling into Belarus-linked flows: Russia is importing gasoline (including from India) and shifting procurement routes, while Belarusian fuel shipments to Russia reportedly fell sharply in early August. Transport & Mobility: Belarusian Railways will add extra trains and seats on key routes ahead of the new academic year, including more Minsk–Brest, Minsk–Homiel and Minsk–Mahiliou services. Retail & Sanctions Pressure: Belarus’s antimonopoly and trade watchdog found banned goods for sale at Expobel, including Nivea products and Polish-origin confectionery, with administrative action expected. Regional Policy: Belarus proposed expanding settlements with Uzbekistan in national currencies, aiming to cut reliance on third-country currencies like the US dollar.

Belarus–Uzbekistan Trade in National Currencies: Belarus proposes shifting more bilateral settlements with Uzbekistan into their own currencies, with the National Bank citing a 30%+ trade rise in 2025 and continued growth in 2026. Belarusian Rail Boost for Students: Belarusian Railway adds extra trains and more seats on key routes (Minsk–Brest, Minsk–Homiel, Minsk–Mahiliou, Minsk–Mazyr) around Aug. 30–31, plus an extra business-class service on the Minsk–Homiel line. Currency Watch: On the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, the dollar edged down to 3.0284 rubles, while the euro and yuan rose. Belkart Payment Glitch: A disruption hit Belkart cards and Minsk Metro ticket offices, but service was restored within about an hour. Retail Compliance Crackdown: The antimonopoly regulator removed banned Nivea (and other Beiersdorf brands) from the Expobel market after complaints, warning of administrative action for violators. Cross-Border Customs Fines: Two Belarusians were fined after customs found over 200 cosmetic items worth more than €32,000 at the Kamenny Loh checkpoint. EAEU Transport Growth: Armenia led EAEU passenger and freight growth in H1 2026, with Belarus also posting gains in both categories. Belarus–Russia Business Links: MTZ is considering cutting its dealer network in Russia as export revenue to the country fell and farmers face tighter conditions.

Fuel & Trade Shock: Kyrgyzstan’s fuel market is getting tighter as cheaper stocks run out and new diesel and AI-92 contracts are signed at much higher prices; Russian demand is also pulling volumes (including from Belarus) away from Kyrgyzstan. Belarus-Russia Energy Link: Russia may face another fuel shortage in September as Belarusian refinery maintenance approaches; Belarus has been shipping record volumes to Russia, but shipments have already started to decline in early August. Food Supply Disruption: Russia blocked three consignments of infected tomatoes from Belarus (about 56 tonnes total), returning them after tomato brown rugose fruit virus was found. Sanctions Pressure: Eight non-EU countries agreed to align with the EU’s latest sanctions on Belarus, expanding restrictions on military/tech capabilities and crypto-asset-related activity. Currency Watch: Belarusian central bank chief Raman Halouchanka says the ruble’s recent slide is mainly tied to the Russian ruble and remains within exchange-rate corridors. Business & Policy: Lukashenka signed a decree changing agritourism loan terms and allowing rural guest houses far from population centers to pay a special fee instead of a tax. Industry & Safety: Belaruskali opened investigations after a roof collapse killed a 49-year-old foreman; another fatal roof-collapse death was reported earlier this month. Corporate/Finance: Local budgets in Belarus ran a surplus in January–July, with revenues up and spending rising mainly for education, healthcare and social policy.

EU Sanctions Tighten on Belarus: Eight non-EU countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway and Ukraine) will align with the EU’s latest Belarus sanctions, expanding limits on military/tech support, alternative revenue sources, and Belarus-linked EU crypto-asset activity (with exemptions for public internet infrastructure). Belarusian Economy Watch: Belarus GDP grew 2.1% in July (2.1% for Jan–Jul in comparable prices), with local budgets running a surplus of 1.7bn rubles in Jan–Jul; local revenues rose 15.3% to 32.1bn rubles. Currency Moves: On the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, the dollar edged up to 3.0313 rubles (+0.6%), while the euro rose to 3.4989 (+0.23%). Retail & Tax Policy: MART named top retail chains by market share; Belarus also changed property tax calculations for spouses’ jointly owned property (each pays half via a 0.5 reduction coefficient). Energy & Trade Pressure: Latvia banned imports of many fresh and processed plant products from Russia and Belarus; meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan is accelerating talks with China’s Sinopec as Russian fuel reliability worsens. Workplace Safety: Investigative Committee opened probes after a Belaruskali worker died in a roof collapse.

Belarus-Iran Trade Talks: An Afghan delegation is set to visit Minsk for a five-day meeting on economic and trade cooperation, with talks expected on expanding bilateral ties and joint projects. Consumer Policy Watch: Belarus is keeping retail prices “stable and under control” after the abolition of price controls, but officials warn price controls could return if unjustified hikes appear; monitoring is being stepped up across regions and Minsk. Sanctions & Compliance: Belarusian anti-sanctions group BELPOL says it has uncovered a new scheme to bypass restrictions on supplying equipment to Minsk’s Planar, involving Stroigeodor LLC and gear tied to French Girard Transmissions. Crypto & Enforcement: Reuters reports Binance shared Russian authorities with a client’s transaction records and personal data used to charge a man accused of financing terrorism via crypto donations linked to Ukrainian groups. Currency & Markets: On the Belarusian exchange, the dollar and euro rose while the Russian ruble fell; the dollar ended at 3.0131 BYN and the euro at 3.4909 BYN. Regional Transport Data: EAEU figures show Armenia leading freight and passenger growth in H1 2026, while Belarus also posted gains (passenger +7.2%, freight +1.5%).

Belarus-Iran Ties: Belarus and Iran are drafting a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty and a cooperation roadmap, with lawmakers involved and industrial projects discussed, including heavy dump trucks and cargo vehicles. Consumer Policy: Belarus is keeping retail prices stable after the abolition of price controls, but officials warned that price controls could return if “unjustified” hikes appear; monitoring and preventive analysis are being stepped up. Fuel Market Pressure: Russia has started importing gasoline from India to ease shortages after Ukrainian strikes on refineries, with shipments reportedly arriving via Arctic ports and then moving by rail to domestic buyers. Sanctions and Crypto Compliance: Reuters reports Binance shared Russian user data and transaction records used to charge a Russian IT specialist with terrorism financing tied to crypto donations to Ukrainian groups—raising new questions for exchanges operating across sanctions lines. Finance Market Watch: Belarus’s Finance Ministry says a dollar-denominated government bond auction on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange on Aug. 14 was unsuccessful, without giving reasons. Trade Signals in the Region: Kazakhstan’s trade with EAEU partners rose, with Russia still the dominant share, while Belarus accounts for about 4.1% of Kazakhstan’s EAEU trade.

EAEU Transport Pulse: The Eurasian Economic Commission says freight and passenger traffic kept rising across the EAEU in H1 2026, with passenger volumes up 0.5% overall and Belarus up 7.2%, while freight rose 1.5% in Belarus. Cross-Border Cash Friction: Banks in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Belarus sharply increased fees for depositing cash Russian rubles for non-residents—reported up to 10–20% (with Belarus’s Neo Bank Asia cited at 20%)—as cash flows tighten under stricter controls. Belarus-Linked Security Spillover: Latvia reported a drone shot down in Balvi that likely came from Ukraine but was pushed off course by Russian electronic warfare; Latvia also says it plans to deploy anti-drone systems along the border with Russia and Belarus by end-September. Crypto Compliance Shock: Reuters reports Binance provided Russian authorities with details of crypto donations used in terrorism-financing charges tied to Ukraine fundraising, despite Binance saying it fully exited Russia in 2023. Belarus-India Ties: Lukashenko congratulated Modi on India’s Independence Day, calling India a major global player and pushing to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, science and technology. Regional Business & Culture: A Belarusian curator in Warsaw discussed a new “Redakcja” venue project meant to fund editorial work and cultural events.

Belarus-India ties: Lukashenko congratulated India’s Modi on Independence Day, calling New Delhi a “global center of stability” and pledging to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, science and technology. Cross-border cash pressure: Banks in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Belarus reportedly hiked fees for depositing cash Russian rubles—at some Belarusian institutions up to 20%—as cash flows from Russia increase and controls tighten. Belarusian business results: Reports say net profit of Belarusian enterprises rose 4.8% in six months, while foreign investment reached about $5bn in the first half of the year. Currency liquidity risk: Belarus’s cash in circulation reportedly jumped 27.8%, raising concerns about “hidden risks” even as the National Bank highlights growth in time deposits. Regional economic diplomacy: Belarus and Mongolia discussed expanding cooperation with economic content across agriculture, light industry, forestry, health, sports and education. Trade and payments tech: BRICS is discussing linking instant payment systems and central bank digital currencies to cut cross-border transaction costs. Security spillover at the border: A Lithuanian border guard was injured during an incident involving migrants allegedly trying to push him into Belarus after entering via an underground tunnel.

Belarus–Mongolia diplomacy with an economic agenda: Belarus’ ambassador to Mongolia, Mikhail Orda, met Mongolia’s foreign minister to push practical cooperation in agriculture, light industry, forestry, health, sports and education, with both sides flagging upcoming visits and projects. Cash squeeze across the region: Banks in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Belarus sharply raised fees for depositing cash Russian rubles for non-residents—reported increases to 10–20% (up to 20% at Neo Bank Asia), linked to tighter control of cash flows. Belarusian finance watch: A Belarus-focused report notes the National Bank highlighted growing time deposits but missed a rise in “fast money” (cash in circulation and demand deposits), warning of hidden risks. Crypto compliance pressure: Binance will stop processing transactions with several crypto platforms tied to Russia that are now in the EU’s latest sanctions package, including services listed in Belarus among other jurisdictions. Trade and investment signals: Lukashenko used India’s Independence Day to praise New Delhi’s global role and called for deeper Belarus–India cooperation in trade, investment, science and technology. Regional business context: Reports also cite Belarusian enterprise profit growth (net profit up 4.8% in six months) and cash-in-circulation growth (up 27.8%) as the economy faces stress.

Belarus Cash & Banking Watch: Belarus’s “fast money” is rising too: cash in circulation jumped 27.8%, while time deposits grow—an imbalance that raises hidden risks for the economy. Currency & Markets: The Belarusian ruble faced renewed pressure, with the dollar and euro moving up on the Belarusian currency exchange. Trade & Industry: Belarusian enterprises’ net profit grew 4.8% in six months, while exports of investment goods increased 0.6% in the first half; Belarus also introduced licensing for glass, waste paper and timber. Policy & Regulation: Lukashenko approved a draft treaty on legal assistance in civil and economic matters with Myanmar, and Belarus cut fees for obtaining work permits for foreigners. Food & Agriculture: Rosselkhoznadzor reported a 23% rise in net profit for its group in H1 2026, while Belarus and Kazakhstan boosted agricultural trade, with Kazakhstan aiming to expand processed exports to Belarus. Sanctions & Compliance: Rosselkhoznadzor imposed restrictions on five Belarusian enterprises, and Binance stopped processing transactions with crypto platforms linked to Russia that include Belarus-listed services. Energy & Logistics: Belarusian Railway will adjust train schedules due to bridge repairs in Mikashevichy, and Belarus is pushing cooperation on electricity market integration within the Union State.

Belarus Economy Watch: Belstat data for Jan–Jun shows revenue up 9.1% to 282.1 bln rubles and net profit up 4.8% to 11.82 bln rubles, but 1,682 firms were loss-making (up 30.4%) and accounts receivable slipped to 106.8 bln rubles. Currency & Markets: On Aug 14, the dollar and euro rose on the Belarusian market (to 2.9906 and 3.4448 rubles respectively) while the Russian ruble weakened. Banking/Finance: Rosselkhoznadzor Group reported H1 2026 net profit up 23% to 48.6 bln rubles, with non-performing loans down to 2.0% and a higher net interest margin. Trade & Industry: Kazakhstan and Belarus agreed to boost agricultural trade, with Kazakhstan’s exports rising and talks focused on more processed food and higher value products. Business Compliance/Tech: Binance will stop processing transactions with several crypto platforms tied to Russia after the EU’s latest sanctions package, including services listed in Belarus. Belarus in the Spotlight: A fact-check of Belarusian TV’s claims about the Horizont H-book laptop found multiple foreign-made components beyond just the casing. Regional Logistics: About 100 Lithuanian trucks remain stuck in Belarus after border closures, with owners reportedly abandoning vehicles because parking fees exceed resale value.

Belarus Economy Watch: Belstat reports that in Jan–Jun 2026, non-financial organizations’ revenue rose 9.1% to 282.1bn rubles, while net profit grew 4.8% to 11.82bn rubles; 1,682 firms were loss-making (up 30.4%). Banking & Finance: Rosselkhoznadzor says its net profit jumped 23% to 48.6bn rubles in H1 2026, with non-performing loans down to 2.0% and net interest margin at 3.1%. Trade & Industry: Rosselkhoznadzor also asked Belarus to tighten compliance status for five dairy and meat producers after product violations, including a “temporarily restricted” designation for Smaliavichy Malako CJSC. Business & Markets: On the Belarusian currency market (Aug 14), the dollar and euro edged up (to 2.9906 and 3.4448 rubles), while the Russian ruble weakened. Regional Links: Kazakhstan and Belarus boosted agricultural trade, with Kazakhstan’s exports rising 31% in 2025 and further growth in early 2026. Food Safety/Logistics: Belarusian tourists injured in a car accident in Georgia remain under hospital care, with an investigation opened.

Belarus–Russia energy spillover: Belsat’s Aliaksandr Knyrovich says more strikes on Russian oil refineries are feeding Belarus’s economy, but the outlook depends on how gasoline flows are managed after the war’s shocks. Sanctions enforcement in the region: A Vienna court convicted two Belarusians in an Austrian case tied to routing €3.3m of dual-use industrial equipment to Russian defense manufacturers, with guilty pleas and suspended sentences. Trade and payments infrastructure: Belarus is pushing new connectivity for commerce, including a national instant payment system “KROK” via QR code and moves to expand online B2B trade. Currency and market pressure: Reports note the Belarusian ruble slipping against the US dollar as the Russian currency weakens, while BVSE trading also shows dollar, euro and yuan weakening. Agriculture fact-check: Belarusian Radio’s “4.6m tons of grain” harvest claim is challenged as misleading when judged by per-hectare performance versus neighbors and the EU. Work migration rules: Belarus is also cutting the fee for obtaining work permits for foreigners, while regional labor agencies keep updating permits for citizens going abroad. Security and fraud risks: A warning circulates about a suspicious account posing as a BBC journalist to interview former Belarusian political prisoners, with links unverified.

Belarus-Pakistan Trade Push: Pakistan and Belarus signed protocols and a media MoU at the 9th Joint Ministerial Commission in Islamabad, with both sides pointing to concrete gains in trade, industry, agriculture, banking, transport and energy. Foreign Investment Inflow: Belarus reports foreign investors put about $5bn into the real economy in Jan–June 2026, with $3.8bn direct investment. Online B2B for Food & Agri: Belarus and Pakistan agreed to promote online B2B trade in seafood, citrus, mangoes, fruit puree, potatoes, seeds and dairy, plus more trade fairs and reciprocal business visits. Sanctions Evasion Crackdown (Austria): A Vienna court convicted two Belarusians over a scheme routing €3.3m of dual-use industrial equipment to Russia’s defence sector, using shell firms and falsified end-user documents. Belarusian Grain Fact-Check: Belarusian Radio’s harvest claim of 4.6m tons drew pushback: per-hectare yields are said to lag behind several neighbours and the EU average. Work Permits Abroad (Kyrgyzstan): Kyrgyz authorities updated licensed private agencies sending workers abroad, including one Belarus-linked firm. Security Warning: Belarusian media flagged a suspicious account posing as a BBC journalist to contact former political prisoners.

Belarus–Pakistan Trade Push: Belarus and Pakistan signed protocols and a media MoU at the 9th Joint Ministerial Commission in Islamabad, covering trade, industry, agriculture, banking, labor, transport and energy, with both sides saying the deals should deliver “tangible benefits.” Foreign Investment Inflow: Belarus reports foreign investors put $5bn into the real economy in Jan–Jun 2026, including $3.8bn in direct investment. Online B2B for Food & Produce: Belarus agreed with Pakistan to promote online B2B sessions for seafood, citrus, mangoes, fruit puree, potatoes, seeds and dairy, plus more trade fairs and aquaculture cooperation. Banking Ownership Shift: A Moscow court ruled to transfer 15.6% of Belarusian Alfa-Bank shares to Russia’s Alfa-Bank, after the Russian parent won a case. Sanctions Pressure via Courts: Austria dismantled a sanctions-evasion network supplying Russia’s arms industry and an Austrian court convicted Belarusian defendants for exporting military-linked equipment. Energy Cooperation Signal: Belarusian Energy Minister Denis Moroz met Pakistan’s PM and finance leadership, reaffirming cooperation and investment talks tied to JMC outcomes.

Belarus–Pakistan trade push: Pakistan’s finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met Belarus energy minister Dzianis Moroz in Islamabad, with both sides backing wider trade and investment links and more industrial cooperation, alongside agriculture, education and culture. Bilateral commission agenda: At the 9th Pakistan–Belarus Joint Ministerial Commission, officials agreed to deepen cooperation across agriculture, industry, energy, technology, health and pharmaceuticals, and to explore a feasibility study for a joint working group plus a preferential trade regime, with focus also on skills, the digital economy and SME support. Banking and housing finance: VTB opened a two-year credit line to RUS for a comfort-class apartment project in Chita (16,000 sqm), continuing the bank’s broader real-estate financing footprint in the Trans-Baikal region. Corporate finance in Belarus-linked space: A court in Austria convicted two Belarusian cousins over export-control violations tied to supplying equipment used in Russia’s military-industrial production. Belarus economy signal: Thinktanks.pro reports Belarus’ industrial trade deficit has grown nearly fivefold over five years, underscoring worsening export performance. Regional policy context: Lithuania is considering additional border “counter mobility” engineering measures and swamp restoration funding, with implications for cross-border logistics and infrastructure planning.