AGP Executive Report

US-Belarus prisoner-for-sanctions deal: Talks in Minsk on Sept 15 between Lukashenko and Trump envoy John Coale produced a “mutual concessions” scheme: Belarus released 25 prisoners (including media executive Lyudmila Chekina and Tor Band members) and the US Treasury removed OAO Lakokraska and state concern Bellesbumprom from the SDN list; negotiators also discussed unblocking $45m tied to Belaruskali at Citibank and resuming potash supplies. Belarus banking policy: The National Bank of Belarus kept standard risk rates unchanged for October, including 12.6% for 1–3 year ruble deposits and 14.5% for longer deposits, signaling steady loan-cost pressure. Diplomacy with Europe: Slovakia’s foreign minister met Belarus FM Maksim Ryzhankou and also Tsikhanouskaya in New York, aiming to keep “pragmatic” dialogue and cooperation in areas not covered by EU sanctions. Trade and investment outreach: Belarus-linked business participation was highlighted in international dealmaking efforts, including UPITS 2026 in India, where Belarus is listed among partner countries. Energy and security backdrop: Polish FM Radosław Sikorski warned Russia may be preparing “something big” and said Belarusians fear being drawn into the war—raising the risk premium for regional business planning. Forestry push: Lukashenko called for faster timber harvesting and more modern forestry equipment production, including for export. Belarus foreign ties: FM Ryzhankou discussed opening a Belarus embassy in Pyongyang and visa-free travel with North Korea, while also raising humanitarian support for Cuba.

Potash & Trade Tensions: Belarus is moving to license apple imports for six months, limiting supplies from non-EAEU countries as the government cites a strong domestic harvest and past shortages. Sanctions & Business Risk: The EU Court of Justice upheld sanctions on Belarusian vehicle makers MAZ and BelAZ, saying they support Lukashenko and keep substantial commercial activity in Russia. Economy Outlook: The EBRD raised its Belarus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% (from 1.1%), keeping 2027 at 1.5%, signaling modest expansion below official targets. Finance & Payments: Belarus is introducing licensing for tire imports and plans to automate operations of institutions supporting budget-funded organisations. Local Life & Waste: Minsk will pilot closed textile collection containers from October, aiming to prevent moisture-contaminated waste and improve sorting for reuse, charity, or technical processing. International Links: Lukashenko met Pakistan’s Senate chair, pushing for stronger economic ties and better payment infrastructure; Belarus and Maldives also signed a visa-free travel agreement. Legal/Compliance: A Belarusian-American was convicted in the US for illegally exporting a mass spectrometer to Russia without required licenses.

Belarus Economy & Wages: Belstat says the average salary fell by 36.9 rubles in August to 3,135.9 rubles before tax; in Minsk it dropped to 4,032.8 rubles, while real terms still rose year-on-year. EBRD Outlook: The EBRD lifted its Belarus GDP growth forecast to 1.3% for 2026 (1.5% for 2027), citing wage gains and construction, but warning sanctions and logistics limits remain key risks. Housing & Construction: Minskstroy plans 360 cottages on unused or abandoned sites across all districts, with land leased for projects and early auctions expected soon. Diplomacy & Mobility: Belarus and the Maldives signed a mutual visa-free agreement (up to 30 days per entry; 90 days total per year) and also flagged cooperation in education, medical training, tourism and food supplies. International Links: Azerbaijan and Belarus signed an MFA cooperation plan for 2027–2028 after talks in New York; Pakistan’s Senate chief also departed for Belarus for parliamentary cooperation. Sanctions & Trade Politics: Lithuania’s security adviser called any EU-sanctions breach over Belarus potash “moral humiliation,” as US talks on fertilizer purchases continue. Belarus in the Global Picture: A US jury convicted a Belarusian-American businessman for illegally exporting a mass spectrometer to Russia without a license.

Belarus–Potash Diplomacy: Lithuania’s national security adviser called any easing of EU sanctions for Belarus potash a “moral humiliation,” as the US weighs a possible Belarus fertilizer deal amid logistics and sanction constraints. UN and Belarus-linked Security: UN human rights experts urged action against transnational repression, naming Belarus among countries whose citizens are allegedly targeted abroad. Minsk Updates for Industry: Belarus simplified electronic passport registration for vehicles and equipment, including rules for equipment bought in Belarus and cross-border data entry. Defense Readiness: Lukashenka ordered a combat-readiness inspection starting with the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. Foreign Policy Moves: Belarus and Azerbaijan signed a 2027–2028 cooperation plan and a consular affairs MoU on the sidelines of UNGA. Business & Economy: Minsk real estate shows a split trend: overall prices rose slightly, while “Minsk World” apartment listings fell and supply increased. Tech/Startups: Belarus-rooted music startup Grai bought social music platform Hangout to build a new shared-streaming experience. Travel Costs: Egypt will raise single-entry visa fees from Jan. 1, 2027, affecting Belarusian travelers.

Potash Trade Talks: US President Donald Trump says Washington will keep buying Canadian potash, but wants Belarus to sell at a much lower price, reviving a “massive deal” idea amid Canada-US tariff tensions and questions over Belarus’s available volumes and logistics. First US Shipment: Reform.news reports the first Belarusian potash shipment in four years—30,000 tonnes of MOP—should reach New Orleans in October, a key test of whether trade really resumes after US restrictions were eased. Belarus Capacity Limits: Lukashenko says Belarus cannot supply large volumes to the US because supplies are already contracted for the year, underlining the gap between political announcements and commercial reality. Court Case: Belarus’s Supreme Court sentenced former Hrodna Meat Plant director Aleh Ivanou to seven years for taking bribes worth about 1.8m rubles (cash and crypto), with a five-year ban from management posts. Payments Infrastructure: Belarus’s National Bank set rules to classify payment systems by significance, while the Bank Processing Center warned of short-term card service disruptions Friday due to technical work. Humanitarian Support: Finland will add €100,000 to help Belarusians affected by repression, via the International Humanitarian Fund, as Tsikhanouskaya’s office discusses further prisoner-release efforts. Business Links: Belarus seeks stronger trade and investment ties with Indonesia, pointing to the EAEU free trade deal and new cooperation initiatives.

Belarus–Potash Diplomacy: Trump said the U.S. will keep buying Canadian potash but is also working on a “massive” deal to buy Belarusian fertilizer at “substantially less” to cut Canada dependence, while Lukashenko warned Belarus lacks spare volumes because “everything is contracted.” Trade Friction Fallout: Canadian officials and analysts questioned the logistics and real price advantage, with experts saying Belarus can’t quickly replace Canada’s scale for U.S. farmers. Domestic Policy—Housing: Lukashenko demanded tougher action over bureaucratic delays in housing loans and flagged overdue rent and utilities; separately, vacant or unclaimed rental housing may be sold for a “one base unit” price to speed up reuse. Business & Finance—Payments: VTB reported big growth in SME acquiring and said it abolished a 1% commission on payments for private education services via VTB Online. Energy/Industry: A Russian SJ-100 passenger aircraft arrived in Minsk for autopilot certification tests, and Belarusian authorities continued industrial cooperation discussions around aviation. Legal/Justice: The appeal ruling in the Harauski case is expected by end of October.

Belarus–Potash Diplomacy: US President Donald Trump says Washington is working on a “massive” deal to buy Belarusian potash at “substantially less” than Canada, triggering market jitters and political pushback. Canadian Pressure: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe calls it “blood potash,” arguing Belarus shipments would have to move through Russia first—raising doubts about whether it’s truly cheaper or “ethical.” EU/Lithuanian Stance: Lithuania’s Seimas foreign affairs chair says Vilnius won’t change EU sanctions over Belarus, while the Lithuanian foreign minister warns US efforts to ease ties only increase Minsk’s aggression near NATO borders. Market Reaction: Fertilizer stocks on Wall Street fell after Trump’s comments, with investors focused on potential price competition. Belarus Domestic Trade Support: MART reports 1.3bn rubles in “Na Rodnyya Tovary” preferential loans issued by early September, with hundreds of thousands of deals signed for Belarus-made goods. Retail Shake-up: Kitchenware chain VDOM is closing its remaining stores in Belarus after earlier mass shutdowns, with online orders stopped. Public Life & Business Risk: A Minsk cat exhibition “Murfest” sparked outrage over animal conditions, adding reputational risk for event operators.

Retail Expansion: «Try Tsany» owners are preparing a new neighborhood convenience chain, «Pobach» (Nearby), with the first outlet planned for Minsk’s «Minsk-Svet» residential complex and job postings already live. EU Sanctions Gridlock: EU member states failed to unanimously extend sanctions tied to Russia’s Ukraine invasion after last-minute objections, with talks set to resume. Potash Geopolitics: US President Donald Trump says Washington is working on a “massive” deal to buy Belarusian potash at “substantially less” than Canada, but analysts warn Belarus lacks spare volumes and logistics are a major hurdle; the move also comes amid US-Canada trade friction. Diplomatic Outreach: A Myanmar delegation visited Minsk for security and counterterrorism discussions, including cooperation and cybersecurity training. Regional Trade Pressure: Moldova’s agriculture minister floated a possible full stop to exports to Belarus and Russia, while noting a ban could hurt local producers without support. Markets & Policy Context: Belarus’s macro picture remains mixed, with reports of slower GDP growth and ruble resilience, while broader EU and global policy shifts continue to shape trade conditions.

Belarus Economy Watch: Eurasian Development Bank analysts say consumer demand is propping up Belarus’s growth, with retail trade turnover up 8.4% y/y and GDP growth slowing to 1.9% in Jan–Aug as harvest timing and a cooling in industry and construction weigh on activity. Potash Trade Signals: Lukashenka again said Belarus lacks “available volumes” for Western potash supplies, stressing exports are “under contract” and trade is being redirected east amid sanctions. Fraud & Credit Risks: Minsk police report a scam case where a resident was tricked into taking “mirror” loans and making courier trips to return cash tied to fake loan applications. International Business Links: Belarus is listed among partner countries for India’s Uttar Pradesh International Trade Show-2026, with officials targeting hundreds of foreign buyers and structured B2B meetings. Regional Finance Context: Separate reporting highlights how BRICS trade is expanding—India’s exports to core BRICS markets rose 34% to $19.9bn in Apr–Aug, underscoring the wider demand pull Belarus exporters may want to tap.

Belarus–US prisoner-for-sanctions deal: Minsk agreed to release 25 political prisoners, with the US signaling it will ease sanctions on two Belarusian companies tied to the negotiations. Minsk transport upgrade: The city plans to renew 164 transport units and convert about 15 bus routes to trolleybus service, with Minsk already running a large electric fleet. Belarusian business & startups: Hi-Tech Park approved 31 new residents, including projects in digital healthcare, industrial automation and AI, while MTS Belarus launched a corporate accelerator for startup teams building voice AI agents. Trade & growth backdrop: Belarus GDP growth slowed to 1.9% in Jan–Aug, a signal that real wages could feel pressure. Border and logistics: Reports say cargo clearance at the Belarus–Lithuania border may slow, adding friction for exporters. Culture with an economic angle: Belarus hosted a new leg of “The Splendour of Silver” exhibition, bringing international museum traffic to Grodno and beyond. Local economy stories: A new charitable Catholic barbershop opened in Minsk, and a new retail chain (Oliva) is set to appear in Belarus.

US–Belarus Sanctions Deal: After talks with US envoy John Coale, Minsk released 25 political prisoners and Washington agreed to ease sanctions on two Belarusian firms (Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom), though the expected prisoner number was higher. Trade & Logistics: Belarus warned that cargo clearance at the Belarus–Lithuania border could slow on Sept. 19 due to scheduled technical work in Lithuanian customs IT systems, with a paper-based fallback available. Sanctions Pressure: Switzerland expanded its Belarus sanctions from Sept. 19, adding more restricted goods ranging from industrial chemicals and rubber products to certain metals, machinery parts, and detonators. Minsk Transport Upgrade: The city plans to renew 164 transport units and convert about 15 bus routes to trolleybuses, with Minsk already running a large electric fleet. Business & Culture: A new retail chain, Oliva, opened in Gomel and plans to expand nationwide with low prices across cosmetics, hygiene, and household goods. International Links: Belarus and Uruguay signed an agreement on trade and economic cooperation after a visit by Deputy FM Evgeny Shestakov.

US-Belarus Deal: After talks with US envoy John Coale, Minsk released 25 political prisoners and Washington agreed to ease sanctions on two Belarusian firms (Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom), though the prisoner number was smaller than earlier expectations. Sanctions Pressure: Switzerland expanded its Belarus sanctions from Sept. 19, adding new bans on items ranging from lab and pharmaceutical glassware to certain chemicals, rubber products and industrial equipment. Border Trade Friction: Belarus warned that cargo clearance at the Belarus–Lithuania border may slow on Sept. 19 due to scheduled Lithuanian customs IT maintenance, with a paper-based business continuity option available. Minsk Transport Upgrade: The city plans to renew 164 transport units and convert about 15 bus routes to trolleybuses, with Minsk already running a large electric fleet. Hi-Tech Park Push: Belarus is preparing a decree on the Hi-Tech Park and expanding the list of audit companies serving HTP crypto residents. Diplomacy for Trade: Belarus deputy foreign minister Evgeny Shestakov visited Uruguay, signing a trade and economic cooperation agreement and a cultural cooperation memorandum. Local Business & Retail: New beauty/cleanliness chain Oliva opened in Gomel and plans nationwide expansion; meanwhile, A1’s late-night electronics promo triggered resale activity. Culture & Community: A charitable Catholic barbershop opened in Minsk with voluntary donations, and the 25th Etno Fest Taraclia highlighted Bulgarian culture in the region.

Sanctions & Diplomacy: Switzerland expanded sanctions against Belarus, adding new bans on items ranging from lab and pharmaceutical glassware to certain chemicals, rubber products and industrial equipment, citing Minsk’s continued support for Russia. Prisoner-for-Sanctions Deal: After US envoy John Coale met President Lukashenko, Belarus released 25 political prisoners and the US said it will lift sanctions on two Belarusian firms (Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom), though the released number was smaller than earlier expectations. Trade & Logistics: Belarus warned that truck clearance at the Belarus–Lithuania border may slow on Sept 19 due to scheduled Lithuanian customs system maintenance, with a paper-based fallback available. Business Support: Belarusian sellers hit by attacks on Wildberries warehouses in Russia can apply for government-backed support via IMVBRB, tailored to the specifics of their goods. Hi-Tech Park Growth: HTP approved 31 new residents, including projects in digital healthcare, industrial automation and e-commerce. Retail Expansion: New discount beauty/cleanliness chain Oliva opened in Gomel and plans to roll out across all regions. Security & Public Services: Minsk’s Lenin Square metro station briefly closed after an unattended object resembling a power bank; service resumed after removal.

US-Belarus Deal Watch: Minsk and Washington kept negotiating on sanctions and political prisoners. After the release of 25 people, the US also removed two Belarusian firms—Lakafarba and Bellesbumprom—from OFAC sanctions lists, with officials calling it an interim step and hinting more talks ahead. Currency & Growth Signals: The Belarusian ruble strengthened against major currencies ahead of the weekend, while analysts warn growth momentum is slowing (GDP growth cited around 1.9%), raising questions about real wage pressure. Belarusian Business Support: Belarusian sellers hit by attacks on Wildberries warehouses in Russia can apply for support via a government-developed algorithm, handled case-by-case by IMVBRB. Hi-Tech Park Push: The HTP approved 31 new residents, spanning digital healthcare, industrial automation, e-commerce and other tech projects. Trade & Compliance: Customs uncovered a scheme to evade duties on imported trucks, opening a criminal case. Transport Links: Russian Railways says “Swallow” trains between Moscow–Minsk and Moscow–Smolensk will add stops at Moscow City from October 1, improving direct transfers for passengers. Culture & Soft Power: Belarus’s National Art Museum unveiled an updated “100 Masterpieces” catalog, continuing a push to spotlight Belarusian and regional collections.

US–Belarus Sanctions Reset: The US removed Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom from OFAC’s sanctions list, after John Coale’s Minsk visit and the release of 25 political prisoners—though economists say the impact is limited compared with bigger names on the sanctions list. Minsk Mobility: Minsk bus routes are set to change, adding another layer to day-to-day transport planning for residents. Belarus Economic Pulse: Belarus GDP grew 1.9% in Jan–Aug 2026, with the statistical committee citing 101.9% of the same period last year in comparable prices. Hi-Tech Park Policy Push: Minsk is preparing a decree on the Hi-Tech Park, including expanding the list of audit companies serving HTP crypto residents and adding new activity types tied to additive technologies. Trade & Industry Links: Belarus and Brazil held consultations focused on boosting trade, diversifying flows, and restarting work of the joint economic cooperation commission. Regional Business Risk: Kyrgyzstan and Belarus agreed to strengthen cooperation on cyber-fraud and corruption cases, including digital tools and cross-border legal coordination. Food Trade Spotlight: An international food industry fair is underway in Ulaanbaatar with Belarus among participating countries, signaling continued regional sourcing and partnership opportunities. Border & Security Context: Lukashenko warned Belarus could have faced Ukraine’s fate if Western efforts to “separate it from Russia” had succeeded in 2020.

Hi-Tech Park Push: Belarus is preparing an “HTP 3.0” decree and expanding the Hi-Tech Park’s crypto ecosystem, including adding more audit firms allowed to serve HTP crypto residents (from 2 to 7) and introducing additive technologies as a permitted activity. Sanctions & Prisoner Deal: The US special envoy John Coale says another 100+ political prisoners could be released soon, while Washington continues easing sanctions tied to releases; Latvia’s PM also backed strengthening sanctions after meeting Coale. Trade & Finance Signals: On the BCSE, the dollar and yuan rose on Sept 17, while the Belarusian GDP growth slowdown to 1.9% (Jan–Aug) remains a key macro read-through. Industry & Energy Tech: BelAZ plans a 220-ton hydrogen-powered mining dump truck for 2027, building on earlier hydrogen dump truck tests. Cross-border Business Risk: Latvia moves toward a fuller Russian food import ban and also raised fees for Russian grain transit, aiming to make the corridor “economically unprofitable.” Diplomacy for Business: Belarus and Brazil held inter-ministerial consultations focused on boosting trade, agriculture, manufacturing, and investment, including restarting a joint economic commission. Governance & Compliance: UN experts again accuse Belarus of weaponizing the criminal justice system against dissent—an issue that can spill into investor risk perceptions.