AGP Executive Report

Belarus-Ukraine Tensions: Zelensky says Belarus is nearing completion of border ammunition and fuel storage bases in five border areas, warning Minsk to de-escalate and accusing “obvious Russian influence.” Diplomacy & Messaging: Lukashenko says he warned Zelensky’s representatives not to “drag” Belarus into war and calls for negotiation, while Russia denies pressuring Minsk to broaden the conflict. Military Pressure Claims: Reports say Russia is pressuring Belarus after Belarusian drone relay stations near the border allegedly went offline, with threats to reconsider economic/energy support. Fuel & Prices: Belarus faces gasoline price risk as Russia demands more fuel; the broader region is dealing with supply strain tied to strikes on refineries. Regional Finance: The Eurasian Development Bank plans $13.5bn in investments across member states in 2027-2031 and may expand its geographic footprint to 11 countries, including Gulf states. EAEU Integration: The EEC and EDB signed a cooperation memorandum to support joint industrial and agro projects and expand export-finance tools. Banking Update: VTB says its active retail clients in Belarus rose by 1m since the start of the year, exceeding 31.2m. Trade & Customs: Belarus exempts eggplants and broccoli from import customs duties, while Ukraine’s authorities move seized Belarusian diesel locomotives to Ukrzaliznytsia’s management.

Fuel & Rail Links: Ukraine agreed to take over three seized Belarusian diesel locomotives for use on its rail infrastructure, while keeping ownership tied up in criminal proceedings—another sign of how Belarus-linked assets are being repurposed amid the war. Belarus Under Pressure: The WSJ and ISW say Russia is pushing Minsk to open a “second front” by allowing more drone launches from Belarusian territory, while Lukashenko tries to stall to avoid deeper entanglement. Border Tech Standstill: Zelensky says Belarusian signal repeaters along the border that help Russian guided drones were no longer operating from June 22, after a deadline warning. Energy Shock Spillover: Reports warn Belarus may face fuel strain as Russia seeks emergency assistance, with the wider context being Russia’s refinery disruptions and growing reliance on imports. Regional Security Push: Eastern flank EU states in Gdańsk urged faster approval of the “Eastern Flank Watch” drone and surveillance initiative, citing escalating hybrid threats. Market Watch: Belarusian ruble strength against several currencies on the BCSE and a May salary uptick point to shifting domestic financial conditions.

Fuel Crunch Watch: Russia is reportedly in talks with Kazakhstan to import about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline after Ukrainian drone strikes cut Russian output by roughly 25%, with Moscow weighing subsidies and even seaborne imports to stabilize prices. Belarus–Ukraine Tensions: Ukraine says Belarusian signal repeaters along the border have stopped operating since June 22 after Zelensky’s ultimatum, while analysts warn Russia is pushing Minsk to enable a “second front” and potentially conscript Belarusians via the Union State. Diplomacy & Trade: Belarus and Serbia held inter-ministerial consultations in Minsk, focusing on expanding economic cooperation, with both sides pledging continued intensive dialogue. Domestic Policy: Belarus approved tariff exemptions for certain vegetables (cauliflower, broccoli, eggplants, sweet peppers) for retail imports under a certificate-based procedure. Business & Compliance: Belarusian authorities opened seven criminal cases after a fertiliser leak was allegedly concealed through fictitious sales; in parallel, Belarusbank introduced fees for accepting cash Russian roubles. Cybersecurity: A major international operation disrupted the Amadey and StealC malware ecosystem, recovering 27M stolen logins and restricting $47M in criminal crypto assets.

Belarus-Ukraine Security: Zelensky says Belarusian communications equipment used to guide Russian drone strikes has stopped operating on June 22, after Kyiv issued an ultimatum to Minsk—Ukraine also reports fewer drones entering Chernihiv region. Russia-Ukraine Energy Shock: Ukraine’s drone campaign is increasingly targeting Russian refining capacity, with analysts warning the oil sector’s resilience is being “stretched dangerously thin” after refinery hits and knock-on economic pressure. Belarus Under Pressure: The WSJ reports Moscow is pushing Lukashenko to open a “second front” by expanding Belarus’s role for drone and hybrid operations, including potential pressure on NATO neighbors. Military Risk for Minsk: ISW warns Russia may be building legal mechanisms via the Union State to make Belarusian citizens subject to military obligations, raising fears of deeper absorption into the war. Belarus Economy & Trade Diplomacy: Minsk hosted Serbian-Belarusian inter-ministerial consultations focused on economic cooperation, with both sides aiming to boost trade and goods exchange. BRICS Angle: Belarus attended BRICS’ 20th anniversary reception in Moscow as India outlined the 2026 presidency theme around resilience, innovation and multilateral reform. Fuel Market Spillover: Russia is reportedly preparing large-scale gasoline imports from India to cover a widening domestic deficit linked to refinery damage—an issue that can ripple into regional trade flows. Sanctions/Compliance: Belarusian customs seized undeclared goods worth over 1 million rubles, underscoring ongoing enforcement pressure.

Belarus Economy & Industry: Belarusian Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn said the country is on a “modest” growth path after the first five months, but warned that industrial performance remains uneven as firms face tough global competition, especially from China. Customs & Trade: Belarusian customs seized undeclared goods worth over 1 million BYN at Minsk-TLC-2, including auto parts, medical devices and children’s toys, with proceedings opened against a Kazakh declarant. Banking & Currency Controls: Zepter Bank joined other Belarusian lenders by introducing a fee for accepting cash Russian rubles from non-residents—3% for new accounts from June 22, with the rule taking effect for older accounts from July 23. Transport & Services: A Minsk car-sharing case ended with a prosecutor’s protest after a woman was wrongly fined for speeding due to incorrect timing data provided by the operator. Regional Security Pressure: Belarusian opposition says it has handed Ukraine a report claiming Lukashenko is preparing Belarus for direct involvement in the war, pointing to legal changes and force build-up. EU Policy Context: The European Parliament’s special committee backed proposals for a European Democracy Shield aimed at countering foreign interference and disinformation, with Russia flagged as the primary threat.

Customs Crackdown: Belarusian customs seized undeclared goods worth over 1 million BYN at Minsk-TLC-2, including auto parts, medical devices and children’s toys, and opened an administrative case against a Kazakh declarant. Banking Fees: Zepter Bank joined other Belarusian lenders by introducing a 3% fee for accepting cash Russian rubles from non-residents, starting immediately for new accounts and from July 23 for existing ones. Minsk Healthcare Costs: Minsk officials said a GP visit costs 45 BYN, a dentist visit 70 BYN, and intensive care 1,700 BYN (excluding medicines), while also criticizing “abusive” ambulance calls. Economy Watch: Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn said Belarus is on a modest growth path after the first five months, but warned that industrial performance remains uneven and competition with China is tough. Ukraine-Belarus Tensions: Zelensky’s one-week ultimatum over Belarus-based drone relay equipment is driving fresh concern in Homiel, where officials urged residents not to worry and said security is under control. Transport & Daily Life: A car-sharing case in Minsk ended with a speeding penalty overturned after prosecutors found the vehicle data was tied to the wrong time, and a Minsk woman’s rights were restored. Defense Tech Spotlight: At the “Belarus-2026” exhibition in Minsk, Russia showcased the Molniya/Lightning drone family, including the export-marketed Lightning 13, aimed at short-range drone missions.

Belarus-Ukraine Security: Zelensky issued a one-week ultimatum to Minsk to remove Russian drone relay/communications equipment on the border, warning of possible strikes; Belarus opposition also delivered a report to Kyiv saying Lukashenko is preparing to align more directly with Russia’s war, citing legal and military shifts. Belarus Economy & Markets: Trading on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange ended higher for the dollar (+0.39%), euro (+0.34%) and yuan (+0.39%), while the Russian ruble slipped (-0.05%). Belarus Business/Industry: Belarusian-made UAVs and drone tech were showcased at Minsk’s security exhibition, including a UAV acoustic locator system; meanwhile, Russia unveiled the “Lightning/Molniya” drone family at the same event, underscoring the region’s defense-linked industrial push. Regional Context for Belarus: Reports say Russia is preparing hybrid provocations against NATO’s eastern flank (Baltics/Poland), while Ukraine’s strikes are worsening fuel shortages in Russia—an indirect risk factor for regional logistics and costs.

Belarus–Ukraine War Risk: Zelensky issued a one-week ultimatum to Minsk to remove communications equipment on the border used to guide Russian drone strikes, warning of direct action if Belarus doesn’t comply. Opposition Claims Wartime Shift: Belarus’s exiled United Transitional Cabinet says Lukashenko is preparing to enter Russia’s war, pointing to legal and budget changes such as “preemptive strike” rules, higher contract recruitment, and increased military spending. Markets: On the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, the dollar rose to 2.80 BYN (+0.39%), the euro to 3.2073 BYN (+0.34%), and the yuan to 4.1239 BYN (+0.39%), while the Russian ruble slightly weakened. Macroeconomy: Belarus GDP hit a new May record, with growth driven mainly by construction and a manufacturing recovery; the EDB also credits domestic demand and forecasts 2026 growth around 1.3%. Business & Trade: Belarus and Cambodia are expanding cooperation under Minsk’s “Far Arc” strategy, with talks focused on agricultural machinery and industrial equipment exports.

Belarus-Ukraine War Tech Pressure: Zelensky warned Minsk it has “time” to dismantle Belarus-based signal relay equipment in Gomel and Brest that he says helps Russia guide drone strikes, citing four relay stations and warning of consequences if they aren’t removed within a week. Sanctions & Finance Spillover: Russia’s fuel crunch and war-linked spending are feeding inflation risks, with the Bank of Russia cutting its key rate to 14.25% while stressing rates may stay high due to pro-inflationary budget pressure and petrol-driven expectations. Trade & Investment Diversification: Belarus is pushing wider economic links beyond Europe, with Cambodia and Belarus exploring expanded trade and investment cooperation via a joint committee and plans for a business forum. Business Environment Signals: Belarusian authorities are tightening data collection on residents for tax purposes, while the government approved an increase in charter capital for the Great Stone Development Company. Energy & Industry Context: Separately, Lithuania connected a new 80 MW battery storage system to the grid, highlighting how regional power systems are seeking flexibility as renewables grow.

Belarus-Ukraine Tensions: Zelensky gave Lukashenko a one-week ultimatum to dismantle signal relay equipment in Belarus’ Gomel and Brest regions, saying it helps Russia guide drone strikes into Ukraine; he also warned Kyiv could act if Minsk doesn’t comply. Belarus Tax & Finance: Belarus’ tax authorities expanded reporting rules for Hi-Tech Park residents, requiring quarterly data on verified account openings/closures and annual transaction reporting above 150,000 BYN, while banks must share information on funds transferred abroad by individuals. Great Stone / Investment Climate: The government approved a $15m charter-capital increase for the Industrial Park Development Company and set a plan to transfer shares in several glass industry enterprises to the State Property Committee. Trade & Diplomacy Far Arc: Belarus and Cambodia discussed expanding trade and investment ties, including preparations for the 5th joint committee meeting and a business forum to boost private-sector cooperation. Regional Business Context: Lithuania connected an 80 MW battery storage system to the grid, highlighting growing demand for flexibility after the BRELL power ring exit. EU Security Pressure: EU lawmakers backed tougher countermeasures against Russia’s “shadow fleet,” calling for vessel detention and tighter oversight.

Belarus-Ukraine Tensions: President Zelensky gave Lukashenko a one-week ultimatum to remove Belarus-based signal relay equipment Kyiv says helps guide Russian drone strikes, warning “we’ll do it” if Minsk doesn’t act, and also pointed to Belarus’s fuel and petroleum supplies as a key support channel for Russia. Sanctions & Compliance: The EU adopted a “mini” sanctions package against Russia, adding new asset-freeze targets and tightening enforcement against circumvention networks that include Belarus-linked entities. Belarus Tax & Finance Controls: Belarus expanded tax data collection, requiring Hi-Tech Park residents to report verified account activity and large transaction totals, while banks must share information on funds transferred abroad by individuals. Great Stone Investment: Government approved a $15m increase in charter capital of the Great Stone Industrial Park Development Company and a transfer of glass-industry shareholdings to the State Property Committee. Energy & Regional Business: Lithuania connected an 80 MW/186.26 MWh battery storage system to the grid, highlighting growing demand for balancing capacity after the BRELL power ring exit. Trade Links Abroad: Cambodia and Belarus discussed expanding trade and investment ties, including preparations for a joint business forum under their trade cooperation committee.

Belarus Tax Crackdown: Belarus’ tax authorities are expanding reporting requirements, including new data on HTP residents’ verified accounts and quarterly/monthly disclosures, plus annual reporting for large transactions and new bank reporting on funds transferred abroad. State Capital Boost: The government approved a $15m charter capital increase for the Great Stone-linked Industrial Park Development Company and also ordered a free transfer of stakes in several glass industry firms to the State Property Committee. Ukraine Pressure on Minsk: Zelensky gave Lukashenko one week to remove Belarus-based signal relay equipment Kyiv says helps Russia coordinate drone attacks, warning “we’ll do it” if Minsk doesn’t act; he also pointed to Belarus’ oil refining as a key fuel supplier to Russia. EU Sanctions Update: The EU adopted a “mini” sanctions package against Russia with new designations and asset-freeze rules, including listings tied to circumvention networks involving Belarus-linked entities. Belarus Crime & Finance: A Minsk court sentenced a man to eight years for stealing funds from compromised foreign bank cards, with victims in 30+ countries. Trade Links: Cambodia and Belarus discussed expanding trade and investment cooperation ahead of the next joint committee meeting. Energy/Industry Context: Belarus’ defense industry showcased new anti-UAV concepts at the Belarus-2026 exhibition, including plans for mass production of a short-range air defense missile system. Cross-border Business: Belarus supplied 330 tons of fruits and vegetables to Russia’s Irkutsk region under EAEU trade, though regulators issued warnings over missing quarantine notifications. Security Spillover in Europe: France detained a Belarusian man suspected of spying for Russia after he filmed a drone prototype at Delair near Toulouse; prosecutors say he sent materials to a contact in Russia.

Belarus–Ukraine Border Pressure: Zelensky gave Lukashenko one week to remove Belarus-based signal relay equipment Kyiv says helps direct Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians, warning “If he doesn’t, we’ll do it,” and also pointed to Belarus’s oil refining as a key supplier to Russia’s war effort. EU Sanctions Hit Belarus Potash: The EU Court of Justice upheld sanctions against Belaruskali and Belarusian Potash Company, rejecting appeals and keeping the “regime support” rationale in place. Belarus Finance Watch: Several Belarusian banks introduced fees for accepting cash Russian rubles from non-residents, with rates up to 5% and staggered start dates. Defense & Industry Signals: Rostec showcased expanded Molniya-13 and Lightning 13 UAVs at Belarus-2026, while Kalashnikov highlighted a layered anti-drone approach including the Krona-E missile system. Regional Diplomacy: Belarus deputy foreign minister Igor Sekreta met Slovakia’s state secretary Marek Eštok, focusing on boosting economic ties and rebuilding trust on security issues. Trade/Business Context: China’s “world’s market” push included a Belarus event as part of a wider campaign to open imports and attract European exporters. Aviation Training: Ural Civil Aviation Plant promoted the Russian-made UTS-800 trainer as low-cost and “sanctions-proof,” with emphasis on domestic engine supply. Minsk Incidents: A bank branch fire in Minsk on June 19 was caused by a short circuit; no injuries were reported.

Drone & Espionage: France detained a Belarusian man (48) near Toulouse on June 3, accusing him of filming a Delair drone prototype and sending the video to a contact in Russia; prosecutors say the case could bring up to 15 years in prison, while Delair says operations were not affected. Energy Pressure: Ukraine’s drone campaign is squeezing Russia’s refining capacity, with Moscow gasoline shortages reported after strikes forced Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery to halt operations and damaged other plants. War Escalation Signals: Zelensky warned Russia that “if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn too,” as Kyiv-linked strikes on Moscow-linked energy targets raise the stakes. Belarus Tech for Defense Exports: At Minsk’s security exhibition, InnoTech Solutions showed an acoustic drone locator (Scanner 2.1), while LEMT presented a laser-guided FPV drone system drawing Middle East interest. Telecom Regulation: Belarus introduced fines for mobile operators over poor service quality, with monitoring by the telecom regulator BelGIE. Labor Rights: Belarus was ranked among the world’s ten worst countries for workers’ rights in ITUC’s Global Rights Index 2026. Trade/Quarantine: Belarus exported 330 tons of fruits and vegetables to Russia’s Irkutsk region under EAEU flows, but authorities issued warnings over shipments arriving without prior notification.

Belarus–Russia ties under scrutiny: A new wave of EU debate is putting Belarus in the spotlight as MEPs condemn Russia’s drone incursions and explicitly cite Belarus’ “complicity” in hybrid attacks, while also pushing for faster EU defence readiness by 2030. Ukraine war and regional business risk: Ukraine’s large drone strike on Moscow—hitting a major oil refinery and triggering evacuations—keeps energy and logistics volatility high across the region. EU budget fight: The EU’s next long-term budget negotiations are entering a tougher phase as “frugal” net contributors push for cuts versus countries defending farm and traditional programmes while demanding new spending on defence and competitiveness. Sanctions and diplomacy: The European Council reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s accession path and long-term security and urged adoption of a new sanctions package, while EU leaders also argue over how to engage the Kremlin. Belarus-linked currency/asset angle: Belarus appears indirectly in the wider sanctions-and-assets picture as the EU and partners discuss using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s air defence and drones. Trade and logistics: Wildberries plans a Central Asia logistics hub in Uzbekistan with $300m+ in infrastructure, aiming to consolidate regional deliveries and expand export routes that include Belarus-linked operations. Aviation/industry: Belarus’ UTS-800 training aircraft is nearing prototype maiden flight, with claims it could also serve patrol roles—relevant for defence-linked procurement markets.

Belarus–Fuel Trade: Azerbaijan’s premium gasoline imports show Belarus nearly tripled supplies of AI-95 to 19,140 tons in Jan–Apr 2026, as spending rose and Russia’s deliveries fell—another sign Minsk remains a key workaround in regional fuel flows. Belarus–Sanctions & Security: Lithuania is preparing legal changes that could block Russia- or Belarus-linked firms from operating at strategic infrastructure sites, including airports—raising the compliance risk for companies with any ties to Minsk. Belarus–Economy Forecasts: More international institutions have downgraded Belarus’ economic growth outlook, adding pressure on policymakers and investors. Belarus–Industrial Policy: Lukashenko signed a decree aimed at stimulating industrial robotisation, pushing automation as a competitiveness lever. Belarus–Business & Trade Links: An India–Belarus business forum is set to deepen trade in agricultural machinery and heavy engineering, while a separate BRICS MSME forum in Agra includes Belarus among participants. Belarus–Currency/Finance: The National Bank of Belarus expanded the list of damaged coins eligible for exchange, a small but practical retail finance update.