AGP Executive Report

EAEU E-commerce: The Eurasian Economic Commission says new rules for foreign e-commerce in EAEU states could start on Jan. 1, 2027. The key change is treating goods bought via foreign e-commerce as a separate category with specific customs requirements; Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have already completed ratification, and the EEC is now building the practical regulatory and IT framework. Belarus-Uzbekistan trade facilitation: Belarus and Uzbekistan plan to deepen customs cooperation to boost bilateral trade, including using electronic systems for certifying the origin of goods and mutual recognition of authorized economic operator programs, aiming to simplify procedures for businesses. Belarus in the spotlight: A Belarusian partly animated documentary, “Letters From the Silenced Country,” has secured world sales rights via Filmotor and will premiere at the Venice Film Festival, focusing on repression, imprisonment and exile after 2020 and amid the war in Ukraine. Currency/finance diplomacy: A report on swap lines frames dollar access as a diplomatic “perimeter,” contrasting US support for some allies with requests from others. Regional business logistics: Russia and Pakistan are exploring a first freight rail corridor, with routes Moscow–Faisalabad and Moscow–Karachi, and Belarus mentioned as a possible participant. Legal/press: A Sri Lankan diplomat reached a settlement with a Warsaw-based outlet in a Poland defamation case, with articles removed and costs agreed.

Belarus Politics & Society: Six years after the 2020 stolen election, Lukashenko remains firmly entrenched as protests are crushed and the opposition waits for a “solidarity moment,” with exiled figures arguing the next push must be for both freedom and independence. Belarus in the Wider Region: A fundraiser is underway to find three missing mountaineers in Kyrgyzstan, including two Belarusians, after their last contact on Aug. 2 during a climb in the Pamirs. Belarus Economy & Trade (Signals): Belarus is again mentioned in regional trade logistics as Russia and Pakistan work on a new freight rail corridor and are considering Belarus’s involvement, pointing to continued interest in Eurasian connectivity. International Context with Belarus Links: Belarus is also pulled into broader geopolitical and sanctions narratives, including reports on Belarus-linked financial and security pressures and the ongoing reshaping of regional supply chains.

Belarus–Pakistan Trade Push: Belarus’ ambassador to Pakistan Andrei Metelitsa met Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan to review bilateral economic ties and preparations for the Pakistan–Belarus Joint Ministerial Commission, with both sides focusing on trade, investment, industrial cooperation, and practical financial arrangements (including local-currency settlements) to help businesses transact more easily. EAEU–Pakistan Free Trade Talks: Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia Faisal Niaz Tirmizi said Islamabad is moving toward a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union while also expanding ties with Russia, framing the deal as part of the North–South Transport Corridor and highlighting potential sourcing and sales across Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. Belarus in BRICS Cultural Cooperation: Belarus joined partner participation in the XI BRICS Culture Ministers’ Meeting in Bhopal, which adopted the Bhopal Declaration to expand cooperation in cultural and creative industries, support creators, and improve market access via digital tools, with a focus on “provenance research” and possible AI-based tracing for cultural property restitution. Regional Transport Corridor Idea: Russia and Pakistan are working on a first bilateral freight rail route, and the project is considering Belarus involvement—potentially creating a new corridor for cargo flows along the Moscow–Faisalabad and Moscow–Karachi directions.

Belarus–Pakistan Trade Push: Belarus’ ambassador Andrei Metelitsa met Pakistan’s commerce minister Jam Kamal Khan to review bilateral trade, investment and industrial cooperation, with both sides focusing on practical financial arrangements and secure payment mechanisms, including local-currency settlements, ahead of the next Pakistan–Belarus Joint Ministerial Commission session. EAEU Connectivity Plan: Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia said Islamabad is moving toward a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union and sees the North–South Transport Corridor as a route that could link cities like Minsk and Moscow with Islamabad, Karachi and Gwadar. Belarus Rail Freight to Central Asia: Belarusian Railways’ “Slavic Caravan” is scaling up: the first block train reached Uzbekistan’s Chukursay station in under six days carrying about 3,800 tonnes of Belarusian exports, while a second train departed from Orsha-Vostochnaya with over 4,000 tonnes, with onward shipments planned toward Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Food Trade Friction: Russia’s Rosselkhoznadzor blocked imports from Belarusian Veles-Mit LLC after document and labeling mismatches, returning a shipment of pork offal and endocrine-enzyme raw materials. BRICS Culture Track: Belarus joined partner participation in the BRICS Culture Ministers’ meeting in Bhopal, which adopted the Bhopal Declaration aimed at expanding cultural and creative-industry cooperation and digital market access.

Payments & Retail Tech: Belarus has launched the national instant payment system “KROK,” letting customers pay via QR code without a physical bank card, with major banks already joining. Trade & Logistics: A “Slavic Caravan” block train service is cutting Belarus–Central Asia transit times, with the first train reaching Uzbekistan in under six days and a second departure from Orsha-Vostochnaya signaling a move toward regular service. Bilateral Business Ties: Belarus and Pakistan reviewed preparations for the next Joint Ministerial Commission session, focusing on trade facilitation and secure local-currency payment mechanisms. Rail Corridor Talks: Russia and Pakistan are working on a first rail cargo route (Moscow–Faisalabad/Karachi), with Minsk’s possible participation under discussion. Food Safety & Border Controls: Rosselkhoznadzor blocked imports from Belarusian Veles-Mit LLC after document and labeling mismatches, returning a large shipment and citing prior restrictions. EAEU Integration: EAEU heads of government signed new documents on e-commerce, mutual recognition of academic ranks, and broker/dealer access to exchange trading, with the next meeting set for Minsk.

Belarus-EU Media Clampdown: Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya says Belarus’ move to label Euronews “extremist” is regime “revenge” over coverage of 2020 protests, political prisoners and the war—meaning access to the site will be restricted and penalties could follow for sharing content. EAEU Integration Push: Belarus PM Alexander Turchin joined EAEU talks in Cholpon-Ata, where heads of government signed a package including e-commerce rules, mutual recognition of academic ranks, and easier broker/dealer access to exchange trading; the next EAEU council meeting is set for Oct. 1–2 in Minsk. Belarus Trade Facilitation: Belarus and Uzbekistan discussed expanding customs cooperation to double bilateral trade, focusing on using electronic systems for origin certification and mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operator programs. EAEU Market Scale: EAEU internal trade is on track to top $100bn in 2026 as the bloc shifts from classic market integration toward digital trade and removing non-tariff barriers. Belarus Retail Pressure: President Lukashenka cited a sharp deterioration at rural consumer cooperative Belkaapsayuz, with losses up elevenfold and overdue payables rising, after inspections found widespread violations.

Trade & Payments: Pakistan and Belarus agreed to boost bilateral trade by setting up consultations on secure, mutually acceptable payment mechanisms, including local-currency settlements, ahead of their joint ministerial commission. Transport & Logistics: Tajikistan and Belarus moved to cooperate on transport digitalization and logistics infrastructure, including an electronic system for exchanging international road transport permits. EAEU Integration: Kazakhstan’s PM priorities for the EAEU spotlight AI development, logistics hubs, digitalization, and barrier-free trade, while Kyrgyzstan’s leadership stressed faster implementation of EAEU agreements to simplify procedures and speed goods movement. Energy Security: Kyrgyzstan is looking to buy up to 20,000 tons of fuel per month from Uzbekistan as it seeks alternatives amid reduced Russian supplies. Business Impact: Belarusian footwear maker Belwest says a large shipment of shoes was destroyed in fires at Wildberries warehouses in Russia, urging customers to place orders sooner. Customs Cooperation: Belarus and Uzbekistan discussed expanding customs cooperation, including electronic origin-certification systems and mutual recognition of authorized economic operators to simplify trade. Cybercrime: A Belarusian national linked to the “Ransom Cartel” ransomware-as-a-service operation was sentenced to 16 years in the US.

EAEU Integration Push: Kyrgyzstan’s PM Adylbek Kasymaliev urged faster implementation of Eurasian Economic Union agreements to remove barriers and speed goods movement, as the EAEU intergovernmental council met in a narrow format with Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Kyrgyzstan. Fuel Supply Diversification: Kyrgyzstan is seeking alternative fuel sources after reduced Russian deliveries, with talks pointing to possible monthly imports of up to 20,000 tons from Uzbekistan (contract details still pending). Belarus–Algeria Deal Momentum: Lukashenko said Belarus and Algeria are working to accelerate bilateral projects ahead of a planned Algerian president visit, aiming to expand cooperation across multiple sectors. Belarus Forex Market: In July, foreign currency supply exceeded demand by $538.22m; in Aug. 6 trading, the dollar and euro rose slightly while the Russian ruble weakened. Regulated Agriculture Procurement: Belarus approved a pilot procurement scheme for crop protection products with plant growth-regulating properties for winter rapeseed via BUCE or direct sourcing, running to Oct. 31, 2026. Cybercrime Fallout: A US court sentenced Belarusian Maksim Silnikau to 16 years for running ransomware-as-a-service operation Ransom Cartel. Regional Security Noise: Lithuania warned Russia may use Ukrainian-made drones for false-flag attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure. Trade Logistics: Beltamozhservice signed an agreement with Bronka Port in St. Petersburg to gain full infrastructure access and cut transit times.

Belarus Reserves: The National Bank says Belarus’ gold and foreign exchange reserves rose by $36.9m in July to $14.193bn as of Aug. 1, with foreign-currency assets driving most of the increase. Forex Market Shrinks: Leverate Capital Markets ended its ARFIN membership after winding down in Belarus, though its forex licence still appears active on the National Bank’s register—leaving the licensed roster set to fall to five firms. Transport & Trade Links: The “Slavic Caravan” freight train from Belarus arrived in Uzbekistan after a 3,822 km run, signaling expanded logistics cooperation. Great Stone Push: Great Stone Industrial Park says a rail terminal for China-bound traffic is planned to start operating in October (first train from China), while Wildberries is speeding up logistics construction near Minsk and ramping up capacity ahead of full operations. Belarusian Business in Russia: BelGee vehicle sales in Russia fell 24.9% y/y in July, even as January–July sales grew, reflecting a tougher Russian auto market. Cross-Border Update: Latvia’s Pāternieki border crossing resumed operations after technical issues, with reservation bookings reopening. EU Pressure Point: Poland urged the EU to deny residence to migrants entering illegally after the Ceuta crisis, citing Belarus-linked “weaponised” migration experience. Regional Security Context: Lithuania’s FM linked Belarus to hybrid threats and said a German brigade will be permanently stationed in Lithuania near the Belarus border by end-2027.

Belarus Reserves: Belarus’ gold and foreign exchange reserves rose by $36.9m in July to $14.193bn (as of Aug. 1), driven mainly by higher foreign-currency assets. FX Watch: On Aug. 5, the dollar, euro and yuan edged up on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, while the Russian ruble slipped slightly. Currency/Markets: The National Bank reported the July uptick, while trading showed continued pressure on the Belarusian ruble complex. Great Stone Push: Wildberries denied claims it is moving key logistics outside Russia, saying its Belarus hub near Minsk (Great Stone) is ramping up toward full capacity; the industrial park also expects the first China-linked rail train in October. Trade & Industry: Belarusian oil refining corruption case: a deputy chief engineer in Vitsyebsk was sentenced to 13 years for bribes tied to procurement and falsified documentation. Cross-border Business: Latvia’s Pāternieki border crossing resumed operations after technical issues, reopening a route for Belarus–EU traffic. Regional Deal: Pakistan says it is moving toward a free trade agreement with the EAEU, with talks that could take up to two years. EU Pressure Point: Poland urged the EU to tighten residence rules for migrants entering illegally, citing its experience with “weaponised” migration.

Latvia–Belarus Border: The Pāternieki checkpoint has reopened after technical problems, with the lvrobeza.lv reservation system taking new bookings again from Aug. 5, restoring travel in both directions. EU Migration Politics: EU leaders met over Spain’s Ceuta crisis after a sudden influx of 50,000–72,000 migrants; Spain says most were pushed back quickly with Moroccan coordination, while the episode fuels a wider fight over asylum rules and “weaponized migration.” Belarus Business & Finance: Belarusian currency and stock trading saw the dollar, euro and yuan rise, while the National Bank reported GDP growth of 3% in Q2 and eased debt-burden requirements for buying Belarusian-made goods on credit. Defense & Industry: Belarus is expanding the 37th Air Assault Brigade near Ukraine with added maneuver, artillery, air defense, and support units; Ukraine also sanctioned two Belarusian defense/tech firms. Trade & Logistics: Belarusian businesses are urging state intervention after Ukrainian strikes hit Wildberries warehouses used by Belarusian sellers. Energy & Markets: Drought is pushing Europe’s hydropower near record lows, while Belarus remains exposed to regional fuel and power volatility.

Belarus–Ukraine Business Fallout: Belarusian entrepreneurs are asking the state to step in after Ukrainian strikes hit Wildberries warehouses in Russia, warning thousands of Belarusian sellers could face losses and limited ability to influence storage conditions. Currency & Markets: On Aug. 4, trading on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange ended higher for the dollar (+0.54%), euro (+0.69%) and yuan (+0.73%), while the Russian ruble weakened (-0.3%). Sanctions Pressure: Ukraine has imposed sanctions on two Belarusian defense/tech firms (Kidma Tech and TISA), adding to the wider squeeze on Belarus-linked supply chains. Border & Logistics: Latvia says the Latvia–Belarus border won’t be closed completely for now, but it is debating stricter measures; meanwhile Belarusian Railways will adjust schedules on the Minsk–Orsha line in August due to repairs. State-Backed Education & Industry: Lukashenka pushed the creation of an Academy of Intellectual Technologies, aiming to train up to 150 students a year for applied research and company-linked jobs. Fuel & Costs Watch: Kyrgyzstan reports much higher gasoline prices than Kazakhstan and Belarus, underlining regional cost pressures.

Belarus–Latvia Border Tensions: Latvia proposed suspending operations at the Pāternieki border crossing, leaving it effectively closed for residents and lorries (freight-only rail remains via Indra). Minsk calls it politically motivated and threatens “asymmetrical” retaliation, citing claims of an emergency order from Latvia’s interior minister. EAEU Economic Agenda: Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin is set to visit Kyrgyzstan for the Aug 6–7 Eurasian Intergovernmental Council meeting, where Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia will discuss removing barriers in the common market and boosting domestic trade, industry and digitalization. Belarus Macro & Credit: Belarus GDP rose 3% in Q2 (after -0.2% in Q1), with growth supported by investment and consumption; the EDB also lifted its Belarus growth forecast on faster investment. The National Bank eased debt-burden requirements for credit to buy Belarus-made goods. Procurement & Daily Economy: Belarus will buy 104 school buses for the new academic year. Business/Compliance: A state machinery enterprise executive faces bribery charges tied to contract facilitation and warehouse acceptance of metal products. Currency: At BCSE start of August, the dollar, euro and yuan edged up while the Russian ruble weakened.

Belarus–Latvia Border Tensions: Minsk says Latvia’s suspension of the Pāternieki crossing is politically motivated and threatens “asymmetrical” retaliation, after Riga cited a “technical failure.” Monetary Policy & Currency: The National Bank eased debt-burden rules for loans used to buy Belarusian-made goods on credit (ratio up to 50%), while BCSE trading at the start of August saw the dollar, euro and yuan rise as the Russian ruble weakened. Macro Snapshot: Belarus GDP grew 3% in Q2 year-on-year, with investment and consumption (including faster retail growth and car sales) supporting the rebound. Rail & Transport Investment: Belarusian Railways plans 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with the first 15 for the Minsk–Moscow route due by Sept. 1. Business & Enforcement: Investigators charged a senior executive at a state machinery enterprise over alleged large bribes (including Audi cars). Education Spending: The government will buy 104 school buses with national budget funds for the new academic year. Regional Trade Links: The EDB says $150bn is being invested in Eurasian rail connections, with Belarus included among 13 countries in the network.

Belarusian Railways: Belarus plans to buy 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with the first 15 passenger carriages due by Sept. 1 for the Minsk–Moscow route, while the company continues infrastructure upgrades and reports 28m passengers carried since the start of the year, with about 45% using digital ticketing. Fuel & sanctions spillovers: Russia’s export ban on gasoline and diesel has been extended until Jan. 31, 2027, tied to refinery disruptions from the Ukraine war; in the region, Kyrgyzstan is adjusting supply routes and has started receiving fuel from Belarus by rail and from China by road. Ukraine legal pressure on Minsk: Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office says it has received a request to open a criminal case against Aliaksandr Lukashenka, linked to alleged support for Russia’s aggression and use of Belarusian territory. Cross-border frictions: Latvia has closed its border with Belarus “for technical reasons,” leaving truckers waiting at the crossing point without clear timelines. Regional business risk: Wildberries CEO Tatyana Kim says drone attacks on the company’s logistics network across Russia have caused billions in losses for entrepreneurs in multiple countries, while the firm continues to fortify warehouses.

Belarus Diplomacy: Belarus will open new consulates general in Krasnoyarsk and Novosibirsk by Nov. 1, while closing the existing embassy branches there, under a July 30 Council of Ministers resolution. Banking & Finance: VTB launched a new season of its paid VTB Junior internship program, taking 900+ interns across 85+ cities in Russia, with applications topping 20,000 for the head-office track and 17,000+ for the regional stream. Trade & Currency: Belarus’ merchandise trade deficit narrowed in the first half of the year, while the U.S. dollar fell on Belarusian currency exchange ahead of the weekend; official exchange rates were also published. Fuel & Regional Links: Russia extended gasoline export bans until Jan. 31, 2027, amid refinery disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes; Kyrgyzstan said it will resume fuel supplies with Russia and also receives fuel from Belarus and China. Sanctions & Business Risk: Lithuania is moving to tighten restrictions on Russian and Belarusian supporters of the regimes, potentially affecting work in education, culture, science, sports and entertainment, and limiting some real-estate purchases near sensitive areas. Cross-border Friction: Latvia’s Belarus border was abruptly closed “for technical reasons,” leaving trucks waiting at the crossing point. Online Retail Under Pressure: Wildberries CEO Tatyana Kim says attacks on the company’s logistics facilities are hitting businesses across ten countries; Ukraine has also added Kim to the Mirotvorets “kill list.”